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BP projects North American energy self-sufficiency by 2030

January 25, 2012

BP has published its second version of Energy Outlook 2030.  It presents a very favorable global energy picture over the next few decades – despite a continued reliance on fossil fuels.  While BP does foresee a growing use of renewable resources, the biggest changes in the future energy outlook are (1) increasing efficiencies in energy use and (2) the massive reserves of unconventional resources that new technology has made economically feasible.  At first glance, this might seem to be a repudiation of the very rationale for this blog – the singular importance of energy as a geopolitical driver over the next quarter century.  However, I contend that is quite the opposite.  It is likely that only the US and Canada among developed and rapidly developing nations will enjoy security of supply (an argument that I have been making since before I began this blog), and that security combined with the relative insecurity of other nations will allow the United States to use both its resources and its growing geostrategic military reach to maintain its lead position on the world stage for the foreseeable future.

However, there is a glaring omission in BP’s projections:  there is little attention paid to the impact of growing (even if decelerating)  fossil fuel use on global warming.   However, it is my belief that growing supply could very well outstrip growing demand over this time frame, which would cause prices to fall.  That would leave room for carbon taxes, the revenues from which should be diverted to mitigation efforts.   The latter will be a hard sell – there are entrenched interests on both sides that will fight it (from the right, carbon taxes are anathema while forces on the green left are hostile to a  geo-engineering approach), but as water seeks its own level, so, too, do obvious policy choices.

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Terror as geostrategic lever

January 24, 2012

Geopolitically, Pakistan is hemmed in between Iran to its west and India to its east.  In India, it has what it believes to be a mortal enemy with which it has been at various levels of war since independence; in Iran, it has a rival for leadership in the Islamic world.   Pakistani leaders would like their nation to be the center of a pan-Islamic quasi-Caliphate to balance the growing power of India.  To that end, it’s Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence has built what some call “an empire of terror” throughout the nations of Central Asia.  ISI has a in every pie, with the dual goals of thwarting other Islamic nations for leadership (Iran and, increasingly, Turkey) plus building a deterrent for India.  Window on the Heartland has recently posted an overview of Pakistan’s use of terror as a geostrategic lever:

Pakistan has always desired to expand its influence in Afghanistan and beyond. Central Asia is seen as an area of natural expansion for the country. Islamabad’s objectives in the region are determined by its geopolitical imperative: to turn itself into the leader of an Islamic bloc stretching from the Black Sea to China able to counter India’s influence and become an autonomous actor on the international scene. In this context, the destabilizing efforts carried out by the ISI through support to terrorist groups in Central Asia since the early 90s have been aimed at creating the right conditions so that the Pakistani leadership could gradually take over from of other major powers such as Russia, China and the United States.

Read the whole thing.

The ISI has built what is in essence a model for a low-tech, asymmetric analog to the integrated defense network centered on complex weapons systems that the US is building.

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US geostrategic reach and capabilities are growing, not shrinking

January 23, 2012

Daniel Drezner wrote this past weekend that “predictions about the death of American hegemony may have been greatly exaggerated.”     Drezner points out that, among other things, the preponderance of US military power vis a vis China is even greater today than it was 20 years ago.  And, with older weapons systems being phased out and newer, more advanced ones coming on line, that disparity is about to grow even greater.  Key to that, and a primary threat to any Chinese designs on challenging US hegemony, is the F-35 Joint Strike Figher.

Dr. Robbin Laird writing at US Naval Institute’s journal Proceedings details how, by combining the F-35 with existing (and developing) Aegis technology, the US is building a global, mobile defense network that will far outmatch anything any competitor can field:

Originally designed as a Cold War tool to bolster fleet defense against a challenging Soviet Navy, the Aegis program has since the 1970s evolved and morphed. Among the factors that have exponentially increased the core program’s capabilities, the software and microelectronics revolution has played a major role. Targeting precision, C4ISR, and missile technologies have all developed, and today Aegis is a key element in global missile defense. Of central relevance not only to the program but to global security, Aegis coupled with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will provide unprecedented modular flexibility at sea for U.S. command authority and our allies as they shape responses to inevitable future crises.

. . .

South Korea illustrates how multiple basing in the F-35 age can work. That nation, in its ongoing defense against North Korea, has defensive systems against missiles and a good army. In the F-35 era, defense and offense are transformed into strategic mobility. Now, instead of investing in static systems able to do nothing other than await invasion, South Korea has flexible forces that can operate in national defense, participate regionally, and contribute to a global reserve capability. Aegis at-sea systems are a key element of sea-based defensive capability that has been provided with strategic mobility.

Add the F-35Bs to the South Korean military, and now you can disperse force, complicate any North Korean attack, and add this capability to the country’s mobile naval force that currently is being rolled out. Deterrence of China is also enhanced, because mobility of operations from South Korea makes China’s thinking more difficult. For one thing, there is no single line of attack on U.S. forces. If the Chinese should target Guam, we would now have multiple bases from the sea and land from which the 360-degree-enabled F-35s coupled with Aegis and other systems would provide a troubling situation for our enemy, who would not be guaranteed success with a large-area single strike.

The U.S. Navy’s Aegis program is an important contributor to shaping the foundation for such a global system. Because all current Aegis navies are potential candidates for the F-35, with the deployment of the Joint Strike Fighter will come important sensor capabilities around the world. We have the opportunity to create an integrated air-sea sensor net for deployed fleets that provides, in turn, a growing ability to shape missile-defense forces and protective cover for global-presence forces.

These F-35-Aegis offense and defense bubbles can be networked throughout the Pacific to enhance the capacity of individual nations. They represent a prime example of how one country’s assets can contribute to the reach others, together establishing a scalable capability for a honeycombed force.

Overall, the enterprise lays a foundation for a global capability in sea-based missile defenses and for protecting deployed forces as well as projecting force. Power such as this is increasingly central to the freedom of action necessary for the worldwide operation of the U.S. military and our coalition partners.

The F-35 is not without its problems – the naval variant will be delayed for an indefinite period because of a design error that renders it functionally useless - but the lead that the US maintains over the entire world in terms of military technology will remain wide for the foreseeable future.

 

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Islamic Feminism

January 20, 2012

The rise of female leaders in the Islamist movement strikes many westerners as oxymoronic.  In a new paper published in Politics and Religion, Arizona State University professors Jeffry Halverson and Amy Way analyze the contradictions between feminism on the one hand and Islamism on the other.  They then use a case study method focusing on two female leaders from the Islamist movement.    The study “reveals the existence of ‘Islamist feminism,’ distinguished from broader secular-oriented Islamic feminism, as a logical, albeit unique, extension, and expression of Muslim anti-colonial discourse rooted in the intellectual currents of twentieth century independence movements that still resonate today.”

This fascinating paper raises many questions.  Perhaps feminism was never really a Western discourse to begin with – at its core, feminism is thoroughly rooted in anti-colonialism, and the Western brand is a deformed and maladjusted version of true feminism (as one of the case study subjects argues).

Read the whole thing.

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Canada to sell Alberta oil to Asia

January 20, 2012

In the wake of the Obama administration’s decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline, Canadian officials have responded by announcing their determination to sell the products of the oil sands to Asia and, in particular, to China.  It was easy to see this one coming – the alternate (and more environmentally risky) route has already been mapped out.

In the past, I wrote that Obama would be able to campaign in 2012 on his foreign policy successes, but this one decision undercuts that entire theme.  His GOP opponent, whomever that turns out to be, can easily cast the Keystone XL decision as one that hurts the US and aids our greatest challenger (China) in one fell swoop.

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US incoherence on energy policy

January 18, 2012

It is very hard to call these two reports anything but incoherent.  First, the President’s jobs council recommends an “all-in” policy on energy to include expanded drilling, development of unconventional resources, and new pipelines and refineries (although it does not specifically mention Keystone XL).

Next, early reports indicate that the State Department is going to reject the Keystone pipeline.  This is a foolish policy decision for many reasons which we have detailed before, but it is utterly incoherent when juxtaposed with the pronouncement from the jobs council the day before.  To paraphrase a favorite line of US liberals, it appears that the left hand doesn’t know what the far left hand is doing.

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Norwegion Defense Minister fears NATO is losing capability

January 17, 2012

Despite the apparent success of the Libya intervention, Norwegian Defense Minister Espen Barth Eide fears that the operation actually indicates that the alliance is losing its capability to conduct military operations. 

“Article 5 is not in such a good shape,” said Espen Barth Eide, speaking before an audience assembled at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “I’m not talking about political will, but the actual ability to deliver if something happens in the trans-Atlantic theater of a more classical type of aggression.”

Exercises have shown that NATO’s ability to conduct conventional military operations has markedly declined, Barth Eide said.

Barth Eide is particularly worried about the state of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter due to uncertainties caused by the pending $480 billion cut in US defense budgets.   Many European nations have relied on the aging F-16, which will end its service life at the end of the current decade.   Delays in F-35 production could leave such countries without advanced defense aircraft.  Barth Eide is attempting to create a consortium of such nations to coordinate their F-35 purchases in order to ensure that the production run continues. I have written in the past how the US has managed to use F-35 partnerships and purchases as a geopolitical lever; we must be certain to consider this when making decisions about the future of the weapon system.  We cannot be penny wise and pound foolish – if we are not going to keep our forces on the ground locally, then we must insure that local governments remain tethered to our defense network in other ways, and sophisticated weapons systems are excellent ways of doing so.  Norway, in particular, is an important ally. They intend to purchase not only the F-35, but also AEGIS systems that will form part of the ballistic missile defense network.

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America’s decline, China’s rise: inevitable? think again

January 16, 2012

Writing at The Diplomat, Zhang Yunling assures us that China’s rise to dominance is inevitable.  The Western economies are too weak and unstable and China’s too strong for the tide to turn, Zhang believes.  Indeed, he insists that the world should welcome an era of Chinese world leadership.   He presses his case with examples of Chinese beneficence, counterpointed by examples of US meddling or intransigence.  China would not repeat the errors or the arrogance of the Americans, he implies.

The theme of American decline and the coming Age of China is widely accepted.  Even long time Cold Warrior Zbigniew Brzezinski is contemplating the end of American supremacy and concludes only that China cannot afford for it to occur too quickly.

I have to disagree.  The last 5 cycles of the World System have seen various challengers for global leadership (hegemony is the term within the discourse).

copyright EnerGeoPolitics, 2010

While the players have changed, the basic structure has not:  It has always been a contest between economic/political systems that are relatively more open on the winning side and relatively more closed on the losing side.   The closed society always looks to have tremendous advantages – Imperial Spain, Napoleonic France, Industrial Germany.  Indeed, both the French and German economies had grown to surpass in size that of Great Britain, the other contestant, just prior to the ultimate struggles between the nations.  Still, it has always been the more open system that has consistently carried the day and dominated the following era.

The Chinese Model certainly presents a formidable challenge to the open system of the maritime democracies, and geopolitics does not have iron clad laws that deem what has happened in the past will always happen in the future.  However, if the US and its allies focus on the strengths of their system and make the decision to be more open, more entrepreneurial and more innovative, then the Chinese wave will crest and recede.

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US Airborne Laser project killed, but new effort in the wings

January 13, 2012

Aviation Week reports that, after 16 years of effort, the Air Force has officially killed the Airborne Laser (ABL) anti-missile project.   The ABL was designed to be fitted onto a Boeing 747 and was hoped to have the capability to knock down incoming ICBMs with a high-energy laser burst.  Despite some advances and at least one success at destroying a target, the massively expensive program is now dead.

However, the Air Force is not finished with its efforts to build a missile defense system around high powered lasers.  The plan now is to wed the advances in unmanned aerial vehicle technology (UAV) with the next generation lasers and build a more powerful yet cheaper alternative platform.

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British geologists on the safety of fracking

January 12, 2012

From Petroleum Economist:

Leading UK geologists say hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is “very unlikely” to cause methane contamination of groundwater, adding that two earth tremors triggered by exploration last year were too small to cause damage.  Mike Stephenson of the British Geological Survey (BGS) said on Tuesday that most geologists thought fracking was a “pretty safe activity” and the risks associated with it were low. He said the distance between the shale-gas reserves, which lie between 1,500 and 3,000 metres underground, and groundwater supplies, usually found at depths of between 40 and 50 metres, made it unlikely that fracking could allow methane to seep into the water table.

“Most geologists are pretty convinced that it is extremely unlikely that contamination would occur,” he added.

Stephenson said the UK had one of the strictest regulatory regimes in the world and that two cases of methane pollution of water in the US, which had been highlighted by anti-fracking protestors there, were the result of mismanagement and were unrelated to the drilling process.

 

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And now, the gas glut

January 12, 2012

In a pair of posts last October (here and here), I wondered whether we might be in or approaching a “gas bubble” due to the rapidly growing shale gas sector.  At the time, I related an analysis that, if all the proposed shale gas projects proposed over the next 20 years came to fruition, then the world would have approximately twice as much gas than needed for projected use.  It seems we won’t have to wait that long for the bubble to burst.  Today, the Wall Street Journal reports on the “Gas Glut” due to American exploitation of the shale resource.  Natural gas prices and futures are falling rapidly as production is already outstripping projected demand.   That the glut is occurring now is probably a good thing – capital will flee all but the most promising projects, which should keep production in line with demand and conserve the resource for future use.  But a larger point needs to be made – this is the Shale Age, but that does not mean every (or even most) shale projects will be profitable for investors.

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US to fill vacant India ambassadorship

January 11, 2012

The position of US ambassador to India has been vacant for over half a year.  President Obama nominated career diplomat Nancy Powell for the position last month, and she awaits Senate confirmation before she can take her seat.    I wrote late last year that I thought Obama would be able to make a strong case for re-election based on foreign policy successes.  However, the apparent disinterest in India is a definite weakness in that foreign policy portfolio.  Other than a 2010 visit long on atmospherics but short on substance, the Obama administration has allowed relations with India to wither.  Regular readers of this blog know that I consider India to be not only a critical geostrategic ally for the US, but also a very possible successor state to the US as the leader of the 500 year old maritime-based world system, the theory of which this entire blog is built upon.  Powell has a long history of experience in India and South Asia and is a strong choice for this crucial post.  This is one post that should be exempt from the political gamesmanship of filibusters and recess appointments that currently defines relations between the Senate and the Presidency.

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Chinese Energy Geopolitics

January 11, 2012

Alexandros Petersen, writing at Foreign Policy, examines China’s drive to secure energy supplies from Central Asia.   In many ways, China is in the same geopolitical pickle that the Germans found themselves before World Wars I and II:  They lack the natural resources that their growing industrial sector requires, but they are geographically constrained by the Russian giant on the land side and by the overwhelming naval power of America and her allies on the maritime side (Britain and her allies in Germany’s case).  As with Germany before, the vast spaces and resources of the Eurasian Heartland are issuing a siren call.  There, they cannot help but bump up against long time Russian interests and influence.  The single most important geostrategic goal for the West in general and for the US in particular is to prevent a strong alliance between China and Russia (as it was to prevent a permanent linkage between Germany and Russia in the last century).

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China’s shrinking Air Force

January 10, 2012

New analysis estimates the size of China’s Air Force to be 25% lower than previously thought.  The adjustment comes from eliminating hundreds of obsolete jets from the rolls.   China has over 2600 warplanes compared to a combined total of 13,000 from the various US services.  Of course, the US also has a much wider area of responsibility to cover.  I will try later this week to come up with an order of battle that would compare China’s air power to the local capabilities of  West Pacific US forces and probable allies in the case of a conflict between the two nations.

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Fracking the key environmental/energy question of 2012?

January 9, 2012

While I was on my holiday hiatus, I came across this important piece from John Daly at Oilprice.com.  Daly breaks down the state of play in the battle over natgas fracking (natural gas derived from hydraulic fracturing).  Daly believes that this could be the key environmental battle of 2012 (I think it will remain the fight over the Keystone XL pipeline).  In particular, Daly highlights a pair of dueling scientific papers out of Cornell University.  On the one hand, a team of researchers led by Robert Howarth identify methane leakage from natgas fracking as a more potent global warming danger than even mining and burning coal; on the other hand, a separate set of Cornell researchers led by Lawrence Cathles attack Howarth’s methodology and claim that his numbers vastly overstate the problems.  The numbers aren’t even close – Howarth, et al, claim that over a 20 year period, the total life cycle greenhous gas emissions from fracking would be at least 20% and perhaps 50% greater than coal; the other team argues that the real lifetime emissions of fracked natgas is at least half and perhaps as little as a third that of coal.

There is probably not enough data to come to a sure and certain conclusion; however, I tend to lean toward the side of Cathles, et al, not because I am in general a supporter of natural gas but because I am a technological positivist.  The Cathles, et al, study points out that Howarth, et al, do not adequately account for the use of “green technologies” in reducing methane leakage.  Further, the future capabilities of such “green technologies” should continuously improve.

In any case, I think the important lesson for the natural gas industry is to keep developing these green technologies, to keep employing them, and to bring their use to the forefront of the discussion.  When most people think “Green Energy,” they think only of solar panels and wind mills.  The energy industry as a whole needs to do a better job of informing the public of the tremendous advances that have been made and that continue to be made in developing these other green energy technologies.

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DoD ramps up F35 production runs for foreign buyers

January 9, 2012

The Department of Defense has awarded $194 billion worth of contracts for the next production run of the F35 fighter.  This in itself is not an unusual story, but InsideDefense.com reports (registration and purchase required) that Pentago officials expect the next two production runs to be as much as 40% larger than originally planned, due to an expected surge in foreign orders.  Foreign sales will be to formal F-35 partners  such as UK, Turkey, Australia, Italy and Norway.  Israel will also take delivery of 3 out of a planned total of 25 jets.  However, these were all anticipated purchases and do not represent any “surge” of purchases.  Late last year, Japan announced that it would purchase over 40 F-35s, and others anticipated that South Korea would purchase a similar number.  India, after having ruled the F-35 out of its own competition for their next generation fighter, also re-opened to door to that possibility.

The F-35 is a crucial indicator in the Geopolitics of Defense Systems.  Nations that purchase such advanced weapons systems tie themselves and their national defense to the United States in complex ways.  The DoD had been purchasing F-35s at a slow rate, so a ramping up of productions capability might be a genuine sign that the big East and South Asian purchases are indeed forthcoming.

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US Shale Oil production set to take off

December 22, 2011

The same set of factors that has propelled the Bakken shale oil surge in North Dakota is set to take off in other regions of the US, the National Petroleum Council reports.  The NPC expects 3 million barrels per day by 2035, but experts in the field expect the 3 million bpd level to be reached far sooner.

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Note:  This will be the last post of the week.  I will make a post or two next week, but the regular pace of posting will not pick up until after the New Year.

Happy New Year and Happy Holidays to all.

 

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Welcome to The Shale Age

December 20, 2011

For as long as I have been writing this blog, I have been identifying the early 21st century as a new era of energy, but not as new as many others would have it.  I do not see a century of exotic, renewable energy resources, but rather a continued and increasing use of fossil fuels.  What makes this new is that technology is finally allowing us to unlock the tremendous reserves of shale based carbon resources.  The Shale Age, I have called it, will overwhelm the efforts to develop exotic alternatives because of the combination of the Three Ps that fossil fuels, especially when converted to liquids, offer us:  Potency, Price and Portability.  Coal, oil and natural gas are much more chemically dense with energy than any other viable alternative source (save uranium and other nuclear fuels); even with the rapid rise in the cost of oil in the last decade, it is still much cheaper than all viable alternatives (and, those prices will crash if an open fuel standard is mandated); and it is far easier to transport liquid fuel via tanker, truck or pipeline to point of use than by building massive electrical grids.

The big game changer is shale gas.  I have written often about the vast supplies of shale gas available in the United States – estimated to be at least 750 trillion cubic feet, enough for century or more even with greatly increased usage – and that doesn’t even count the similarly huge reserves of shale oil which are also on the cusp of becoming widely accessed.   As large as the American resources are, it is dwarfed by new estimates of China’s shale gas resource.  At 12750 trillion cubic feet, it is 70% greater than even the tremendous US reserve.  If China and the US both maximize their use of shale gas, they will completely transform the world geo-economic and geopolitical structure.  Indeed, such an occurrence might even make this blog and my chosen specialty superfluous.   I would gladly welcome being made redundant if that is the case, though I still warn that there are pitfalls ahead – not the least of which is the increasing possibility of a shale gas bubble that delays the entire enterprise.

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Whither China? Chinese leaders ponder choice between 2 economic models

December 19, 2011

The European Council on Foreign Relations has produced a new China Analysis that compares two models for the Chinese economy that leaders are debating as they consider China’s future path.  The models are named after two Chinese geographical entities- the city of Chongqing in Central China, and the Southeastern coastal province of Guangdong.  The Chongqing model is largely a continuation of the current scheme – luring foreign investment and rapidly growing GDP through large exports.  The Guangdong model, on the other hand, is a move away from the export based strategy and an attempt to build a sector leading high tech economy.  The Chongqing model, I think, is nearing (and possibly has already reached) its peak; the Guangdong model, on the other hand, presents a difficult road and is far from a sure thing.    

Read the whole thing.

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Short vacation hiatus

December 13, 2011

off to Sea World with the family . . . please come back for a new post on Monday.  Posting will continue to be sparse – no more than 1 per business day – for the rest of the month.  I should be back to posting multiple items in January, after the holiday season has passed.  Thanks to all visitors for their continued support.

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