| Analyzing the Geopolitics of Energy through the lens of Long Cycle Theory

Generating energy by burning food

May 16, 2013

In an era when a large number of Americans suffer from “food insecurity,” the title of this post sounds perverse. However, there is a Catch 22 in the US food production and consumption pipeline: According to the Natural Resources Defense Council (link opens a pdf), as much as 40% of US food production is wasted before it can be eaten or donated. The fact of the matter is that produce, milk and meat have short shelf lives that, once passed, make them inedible. Such wastage is a problem everywhere, but is especially pronounced in the US because our agricultural sector is so productive.

One large supermarket chain has come up with something of a solution: Kroger has built a large plant in Southern California that uses a closed-loop anaerobic digester system which reclaims its waste food to produce water, fertilizer and enough energy to provide 20% of its distribution center’s needs. A long article in the LA Times describes the process:

Several chest-high trash bins containing a feast of limp waffles, wilting flowers, bruised mangoes and plastic-wrapped steak sat in an airy space laced with piping. Stores send food unable to be donated or sold to the facility, where it is dumped into a massive grinder — cardboard and plastic packaging included.

After being pulverized, the mass is sent to a pulping machine, which filters out inorganic materials such as glass and metal and mixes in hot wastewater from a nearby dairy creamery to create a sludgy substance.

Mike Vriens, Ralphs vice president of industrial engineering, describes the goop as a “juicy milkshake” of trash.

From there, the mulch is piped into a 250,000-gallon staging tank before being steadily fed into a 2-million-gallon silo. The contraption essentially functions as a multi-story stomach.

Inside, devoid of oxygen, bacteria munch away on the liquid refuse, naturally converting it into methane gas. The gas, which floats to the top of the tank, is siphoned out to power three on-site turbine engines.

The 13 million kilowatt-hours of electricity they produce per year could power more than 2,000 California homes over the period, according to Kroger.

Excess water from the digester is pumped out, purified and sent into the industrial sewer. Leftover sludge becomes nutrient-rich organic fertilizer, enough to nourish 8,000 acres of soil.

The so-called closed-loop system was developed by Boston start-up Feed Resource Recovery and offsets more than 20% of the distribution center’s energy demands — all without producing any pungent odors.

The program helps Kroger reduce its waste by 150 tons a day. The trash otherwise would have been sent to Bakersfield to be composted, hauled away six times a day by diesel trucks traveling 500,000 miles a year.

Trash cogenerationshould be a much greater part of our national energy mix – it is a renewable resource. The Germans have shown that it can be done cleanly and efficiently and even increase the amount and value of recycling. Unfortunately, trash burning plants from the 70s and earlier were dirty and inefficient, and environmental policies and attitudes that were set in place 40 and 50 years ago remain entrenched today, even though they should have been superseded by technological progress. The good news is that private companies are leading the way where governments are unable; let’s hope that some day our political “leaders” can follow them.

Posted in alternative energy, trash cogeneration | Leave a Comment »

Australia places itself in the center of things

May 15, 2013

The new Australian Defence White Paper has been noted for its conciliatory language toward China, leading some observers to wonder whether the Aussies are beginning to stray from the long-time US alliance. That language, though, is not that much different from what you hear emanating from Tokyo, New Delhi or Washington, DC. All of these powers speak of peaceful co-dominion with rising China, but at the same time all are preparing for containment of or outright conflict with her.

Indeed, the Australian defence planners have placed themselves in the center of the maritime encirclement of The Dragon. Whereas the Aussies previously spoke of their primary strategic interest in the Asian-Pacific region, the new White Paper introduces the new term “Indo-Pacific” region. The Indo-Pacific strategic arc begins in India, traces across the Indonesian Archipelago and up to Japan.

Australia has a tricky relationship with China: On the one hand, China is Australia’s largest trade partner, but on the other hand the aggressive territorial claims and ambitions of China has the Aussies (like every other nation in the region) worried. Also, the large trading relationship with China is dwarfed by the even larger collective relationship with nations often at odds with her (see graphic below).

Some in Australia fret that they have to “choose” between their relationships with China and the US. Some – including former Prime Minister and noted friend to the US John Howard – call such a debate “infantile.” I don’t think it is infantile – it is simply a choice that does not need to be made today. For now, Australia has managed to cut the baby in half – maintaining its lucrative trade ties with China while also being a lynchpin in the US-led virtual maritime containment of the same. With any luck – and skillful diplomacy by all involved – the choice will never have to be made. But, if that day comes, Australia’s defense planners are quite clear that they will be in the middle of things.

Posted in Asian Pivot, China, Coalitioning, Defense policy, East Asia, geostrategy, Grand Strategy | Tagged Australia, Indo-Pacific | Leave a Comment »

Origins Project advocates for atmospheric CO2 extraction

May 14, 2013

The Origins Project is a multi-disciplinary effort at Arizona State University designed to “explore the questions of who we are and where we are from.” The Project has long been interested in the topic of climate change, and a team of 15 Project-affiliated scientists has published a paper advocating research into large scale extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere (something the British have already successfully demonstrated). In an introduction to this position published in Slate, Project Director Lawrence Krauss denies that this is a geo-engineering project (although he really just carefully defines geo-engineering to exclude this idea).

Extraction of CO2 from the environment may indeed become a viable option, but it will probably follow on from existing and ongoing efforts to extract CO2 at production sites, turning it into useful methanol. Nobel prize winning chemist George Olah has long advocated this capture and utilization of CO2 and has envisioned the eventual extraction of atmospheric CO2, but Olah’s vision is one that would be supported by market economies. The great advantage of Olah’s approach is that it will allow us to continue using our vast supplies of fossil fuels in an efficient and environmentally friendly manner. There is a role for governmental action in this scheme, but it would be more in creating the regulatory environment needed to foster a methanol economy than in direct financial support for research.

Posted in alt-fuels, carbon capture and utilization, CCU, CO2, methanol economy | Leave a Comment »

Island powers and maritime conflict

May 13, 2013

The latest issue of The Professional Geographer features a research paper from Dr. Elizabeth Nyman at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette which examines the concept of “island exceptionalism.” Are island states really different from mainland states in their behavior on the international stage? Nyman concludes that, yes, there are very real differences. You will have to have access to Taylor and Francis journals in order to read the full paper at the link, but here is the abstract:

Scholars have argued that due to their special geographical circumstances, island states develop a different relationship with maritime space than their continental counterparts. This is generally attributed both to island residents’ greater access to and benefit from oceanic resources and also to the metaphysical qualities of life that uniquely develop on islands. This article investigates deeper into the phenomenon of geographically determined island exceptionality by considering whether island states and mainland states truly behave differently when it comes to their treatment of and behavior in maritime spaces. Through an analysis of disputed areas in the International Correlates of War maritime data, I consider whether island states are more likely to try and confirm sovereignty over disputed maritime waters than mainland states. My examination of disputed maritime areas in the Western Hemisphere and Europe from 1900 to 2001 shows that indeed island states are both more likely to try and settle a disputed maritime area, whether by force or by negotiated resolution. This finding is then used to raise new questions about the geographic differences that characterize island states in the world political system.

I find this interesting because, in the era of the modern world system, the hegemonic powers have (a) always been maritime powers and have usually been either insular (Great Britain), peninsular (Portugal). The exceptions have been the Dutch and the US, which themselves have unique geographic features which push them to the sea. I am thinking about extending Nyman’s analysis beyond island nations out to any nation on MacKinder’s “outer crescent” which has oceanic frontage. It would not surprise me to see Nyman’s effects enhanced by this data, in which case I might be able to conclude that what is exceptional is heavy participation in maritime disputes (in which case we might be able to consider Portugal and Holland as functionally part of the Outer Crescent).

On another topic – from Nyman’s bio page, I read that she has a forthcoming book on maritime matters in the Arctic, which is another topic explored frequently on this blog. I look forward to reading more of Dr. Nyman’s work.

Posted in Asian Pivot, Atlanticism, geopolitics, navy | Leave a Comment »

$150 a barrel oil inevitable?

May 10, 2013

That is the conclusion of the analysis in this months issue of TerraJoule.

From the conclusion:

The next repricing of oil should, however, trigger production from a number of deep, offshore regions in Africa, and in Brazil. However, the same pricing dynamics will apply: none of this supply will “lower” the price of oil just as the current round of new supply did not “lower” oil prices. Development costs will have simply climbed to a higher plateau. Oil’s ultimate fate, therefore, is to increasingly pass to the hands of those users who can derive maximum economic benefit from using a small amount of oil. In the hands of the global chemicals industry, or with a family in Asia driving a micro-car just 40 miles a week, oil will be set free to price in the $150$200 range as the cost of marginal supply aligns optimally with a new type of demand. Oil’s quiet period could last, at most, another 24 months. By the end of 2014, unless a very bad global recession is underway, the Non-OECD will then be using more than 50% of total supply. The global oil industry will be happy to serve those five billion people, at prices above $150 a barrel.

TerraJoule is available for download at $6.99 per issue. For most EGP readers, it will be well worth your while to spend the 7 bucks and read the entire analysis.

When reading this analysis, remember that security of supply is not the same thing as stability of price. If, as I do, you place a premium on security of supply, then you are not terribly troubled by the conclusion that we may need much higher prices if we are to open up all of the potential unconventional reserves. Indeed, a massive price spike of the type envisioned in TerraJoule might have the doubly positive effect of (a) increasing unconventional resource development while at the same time pushing the US to a methanol economy (at least in the personal transportation sector).

Posted in energy security, oil, oil prices | Leave a Comment »