PLA connected paper lists 6 wars China is “sure” to fight in the coming decadesOctober 22, 2013
Wen Wei Po is a Hong Kong based paper. It’s deep connections with the People’s Liberation Army makes it a primary source for breaking news about Chinese military developments. In July, it published an article titled “Six Wars China Is Sure To Fight In The Next 50 Years.” Each of these proposed wars would be to reclaim territory that has been in and out of Chinese control at various times, but which ardent nationalists believe are rightful Chinese dominions. The Indian Defense Review last week published an English language translation of the article. The author of the article assumes a precipitous decline of Japanese and Russian power and a slow decline of US capabilities. There is concern evinced about growing Indian power, and the author suggests that China should use subterfuge to break up India into smaller states (or, if that fails, to encourage another Pakistani-India war to weaken the latter). None of these suggestions are among the six wars, which are as follow:
- War of Unification with Taiwan (2020-2025)
- Reconquest of the Spratly Islands (2025-2030)
- Reconquest of Southern Tibet (2035-40)
- Reconquest of Diaoyu and Ryukyu Islands (2040-2045)
- Unification of Outer Mongolia (2045-50)
- Reconquest of lands lost to Russia (2050-55)
The parenthetical dates are estimated time frames, not estimates of duration. The author believes that open conflict with the US will be avoided, even though reconquest of Ryukyu (aka Okinawa) would mean some sort of contact with US forces. Siberian Russia – lands ceded by China in 1860 – is the biggest prize, and the author identifies Russia as China’s bitterest enemy with a debt that must be paid.
This is, of course, not necessarily an eye on long term strategic thinking of the Chinese Communist Party. But it is a public expression of the desire for martial expansion by a well connected media outlet, and that cannot be ignored. And the deep hatred for Russia is the wedge that skilled US leaders must continue to force in years ahead.