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Taiwan Ministry of Defense: PLA will have capability for successful invasion by 2020

October 8, 2013

A Taiwan Ministry of Defense Report leaked to the Want China Times spells out the race against time that the Republic of China seems to be losing:

China plans to enhance its combat capabilities to a level sufficient to mount a full attack against Taiwan by 2020, showing that its military threat to Taiwan has not diminished, the Ministry of National Defense has concluded in a report.

First published in 1992, the 12th National Defense Report says that China has developed and deployed various types of new high-end weapons and has developed cyber attack and defense technologies.

It also has plans to ramp up its combat capabilities needed to launch an all-out attack on Taiwan by 2020, the report says.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force “has stationed a large number of advanced aircraft within unrefueled range of Taiwan, providing them with a significant capability to conduct air superiority and ground operations against Taiwan,” the report says.

Taiwan’s military currently has the capability to defeat a PLA cross-straits attack, but the PRC is gaining numbers and capability faster than Taiwan can keep up.  At the same time, the US Navy, while technologically superior and with many new weapons systems under design, is hindered by national politics and finances and is seeing its ability to intervene slowly diminish, regardless of the vaunted “Asian Pivot.”  At some point, the two lines will cross.  Will it be 2020, 2025?  At this rate, it looks like sooner rather than later.

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