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Peak Oil theory is dead . . . even if it’s proponents don’t know it

April 18, 2012

Robin Mills, writing at the European Energy Review, details the large number of factors that have rendered Peak Oil alarmism obsolete.  Read the whole thing.

This does not mean, of course, that a price decline is imminent.  So long as OPEC maintains its market share and its internal discipline, we can expect oil prices to remain high.  While there is a possibility that the natural course of events will drive prices down, there are also policy decisions that the United States can make that will ensure that outcome.  Chief among them are the adoption of the Open Fuel Standard, which would either directly weaken OPEC’s market position, or else frighten OPEC energy ministers into internal disarray that would have the same effect.  Another policy option would be to take up a new version of the NEED Act, which would further enhance domestic fuel production.

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7 comments

  1. Actually Peak Oil is not dead. That’s why we keep talking about it. In fact, Peak Oil Theory is rapidly becoming Peak Oil Fact. We can look at the 2010 Joint Opereating Forces report page 24 that says as much.

    http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-10-01/military-reports-leading-charge-peak-oil-debate

    or we can look at what the President of Toyota has to say:

    or the list of Amazon Peak Oil DVD’s that were non-existant 10 years ago:

    http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dmovies-tv&field-keywords=peak+oil#/ref=sr_pg_1?rh=n%3A2625373011%2Ck%3Apeak+oil&keywords=peak+oil&ie=UTF8&qid=1334842524

    or Amazon Book of Peak Oil:

    http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=peak+oil

    It’s rapidly becoming very well known throughout the world, on TV, Radio, Internet, Blogosphere. It’s everywhere. It’s starting to become common knowledge.


  2. the data no longer support peak oil theory . . . peak “easy oil,” perhaps, but there is no imminent peak of production or supply.

    read the linked article.

    btw, appeal to consensus is not a valid form of argument


  3. Polarizing by calling others alarmist doesn’t really work either.

    Actually this post is implying that there is a new consensus and I just don’t see the evidence of that. Yes there are new wells, there are new discoveries but not enough to make up for a REVERSAL of the continual decline.
    Another reputable source from the German Military:

    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/09/01/german-report-peak-oil-collapse-democracy/

    More facts from the astute, responsible non-alarmist group ASPO:

    http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/peak-oil-reference/peak-oil-data/oil-discovery/
    http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/peak-oil-reference/peak-oil-data/production-and-peak-dates-by-country/

    Many individuals espousing Peak Oil are Congressmen, scientists, geologists, businessmen, and educators. They are not the fringe, they are the leaders and they really don’t have a vested interest in oil companies.

    T. Boone Pickens talks Peak Oil 2010:


    • the data are real . . . unconventional resources and new technology for expanding production of old resources have vastly increased the amount of recoverable oil. The McKelvey box has expanded. In order to refute the hypothesis, you have to refute the data. I suspect you haven’t read the report in this post. I have made post after post on this topic – including many on the sources you cite in your responses. When you look at all the date, the conclusion is inescapable – the world is awash in oil and other fossil fuels. The predicted dates of oil production peaks have serially passed and will continue to do so until well into the second half of our century, if then.


  4. I did read the report but was unimpressed. It didn’t appear to be backed by reliable data. In fact I was amazed by the following quote,

    “Even a country like France could become an oil producer. The Paris Basin may hold 5-10 billion barrels, enough to cover France’s consumption for 10 years or so”

    Pure speculation.

    Our desperation is obvious when we even talk about shale, tar sands, growing switch grass and harvesting algae. Our desperation is obvious when we have so long measured Oil and now it’s all called Liquid Fuels.

    I don’t really believe that alternative sources can lengthen the date of peak oil. We PUMP 31.3 billions barrels a year. Pumping energy has always been easier then growing grass/corn or mining coal and tar sands. In fact, the aggregate of all methods: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear, and Tidal energy will not delay Peak Oil much more than a couple weeks to a year at best. Even daily, the world uses 80 million barrels of oil. Nothing else can compare. The reason why is because everything uses oil, even the Hydro, Wind, Solar and Tidal Energy. They are all made using oil.


    • Sorry to be so blunt, but you are almost willfully ignorant of the vast scope of the so-called “unconventional” resources . . . there is more unconventional resource than there ever was conventional, or “easy” oil, and at $100 per barrel, exploitation of these resources – which will last for a century or more – are suddenly economic.

      Peak Oil theory was always based on the idea that unconventional oil would remain uneconomic, but need plus technological advances have changed the picture.


  5. […] cartelization of supply by leveraging other liquid fuel substitutes, as we have noted many times in the past. Share this:PrintEmailTwitterFacebookStumbleUponLinkedInDiggRedditLike this:LikeBe the first to […]



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