Posts Tagged ‘Turkey’

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Terror as geostrategic lever

January 24, 2012

Geopolitically, Pakistan is hemmed in between Iran to its west and India to its east.  In India, it has what it believes to be a mortal enemy with which it has been at various levels of war since independence; in Iran, it has a rival for leadership in the Islamic world.   Pakistani leaders would like their nation to be the center of a pan-Islamic quasi-Caliphate to balance the growing power of India.  To that end, it’s Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence has built what some call “an empire of terror” throughout the nations of Central Asia.  ISI has a in every pie, with the dual goals of thwarting other Islamic nations for leadership (Iran and, increasingly, Turkey) plus building a deterrent for India.  Window on the Heartland has recently posted an overview of Pakistan’s use of terror as a geostrategic lever:

Pakistan has always desired to expand its influence in Afghanistan and beyond. Central Asia is seen as an area of natural expansion for the country. Islamabad’s objectives in the region are determined by its geopolitical imperative: to turn itself into the leader of an Islamic bloc stretching from the Black Sea to China able to counter India’s influence and become an autonomous actor on the international scene. In this context, the destabilizing efforts carried out by the ISI through support to terrorist groups in Central Asia since the early 90s have been aimed at creating the right conditions so that the Pakistani leadership could gradually take over from of other major powers such as Russia, China and the United States.

Read the whole thing.

The ISI has built what is in essence a model for a low-tech, asymmetric analog to the integrated defense network centered on complex weapons systems that the US is building.

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Relations strained between Turkey and Iran

October 29, 2011

Eurasia Review details the numerous recent Turkish actions that have strained what was a once blossoming relationship between Turkey and Iran.   In reality, the Turks and Persians have been rivals for regional influence for centuries, so it was always unlikely that the newfound friendship would last, but it has unraveled quickly.  Some of the issues that Iran has with Turkey are:

  • Turkish support for the opponents to the Iranian client regime in Syria
  • Turkish coordination with the US on Syrian policy
  • Turkish support for democracy and secular governments in Muslim states
  • Turkish drive for influence in post-American Iraq
  • and the biggest one of all, Turkey agreeing to host a US anti-missile radar, which could neuter Iran’s great power ambitions

Iran has a small circle of friends, and among them, Turkey is very important because of growing economic ties between the two nations.  Turkey holds the upper hand in this relationship, and it will be interesting to watch this relationship develop.

Long time readers will notice that I tend to write a lot about Turkey.  This is because of this blog’s focus on Long Cycle Theory in general and on the current coalitioning phase of LTC.  It is our belief that Turkey is a bell weather nation that will determine the path of that cycle.

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Turkey seeks to preempt potential Israeli gas bonanza

October 27, 2011

Last year, the USGS assessed the potential energy bounty of billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean, primarily around Israel.    Since its inception, Israel has had the misfortune of being one of the very few Middle Eastern nations without massive energy reserves.  This discovery would change the character of Israel both economically and strategically.  Not only would there be enough oil and gas to power the nation, but the potential to export resources to energy hungry Europe would not only bring in foreign revenues, but also fundamentally change a number of dependency relationships.

However, Israeli-Turkish relations have been on the decline (since before this discovery, but more rapidly since then).  Now, Turkey has taken things a step further, announcing that Turkey would block any Israeli access to European markets via the pipeline network that transits Turkey:

Turkey will not permit the transit of natural gas produced in Israel, linking the rejection to the present state of relations between the two nations.  Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said Turkey has turned down requests private firms to allow the transit of natural gas produced in Israel through Turkey to Europe.

Turkish-Israeli relations have been tense since the attack on a Gaza-bound flotilla on May 30, 2010 that killed nine Turkish nationals.  In very blunt terms, Yildiz stated: “Had not nine of our nationals been murdered, there could be major developments in the energy distribution in the Mediterranean Sea. [Then] we would not have rejected the demand by private firms,” he said on Friday.

The Minister’s comments also reflect adverserial positions on the contested drilling by Cyprus in the Levant Basin of Mediterranean Sea.

The flotilla deaths are a cover, IMO, for a hard nosed geopolitical calculation.  Turkey seeks to dominate the Eastern Mediterranean militarily and economically.  It needs to weaken Israel in both realms, and as an aside, probably has its own designs on the energy resources.

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Is Turkey seeking naval confrontation with Israel, or not?

September 12, 2011

Prime Minister Erdogan seemed to “walk back” his recent belligerent comments this past weekend, claiming that he had been taken out of context.  However the same source as that the J Post cites for their “walk back” story (Today’s Zaman) is reporting TODAY that Turkey plans to sortie three frigates with the mission of confronting Israeli warships around Gaza:

The Turkish frigates, to be dispatched by the Navy’s Southern Sea Area Command, will provide protection to civilian ships carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza, blockaded by Israel since 2007, the Turkish daily Sabah reported. If the Turkish warships encounter an Israeli military ship outside Israel’s 12-mile territorial waters, they will advance up to 100 meters close to the ship and disable its weapon system, in a confrontation that resembles dogfights in the Aegean Sea with Greek jet fighters . . ..

So, is there or isn’t there a brewing confrontation in the Eastern Med?

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Turkey takes another step toward the abyss

September 8, 2011

Prime Minister Erdogan, working without experienced military leadership to guide him (since his senior commanders have all resigned in protest over those lower ranking commanders who have been jailed for political reasons), has ordered his Navy to escort Gaza blockade runners and to court a serious military confrontation with Israel.  Erdogan is also intent on limiting Israeli exploitation of the recently (2010) discovered gas fields beneath the Eastern Mediterranean.  There is as much as 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the region, not enough the change the global balance of power but certainly enough to change Israel’s strategic energy profile for the better.

Yesterday, we wrote that Turkey was risking the creation of another cold war with Israel not dissimilar from the one it has been engaged in with Greece.  But, the Israelis will not back down, and this war could easily become very hot, very fast.    The decline in Turkish/Israeli relations could end up being the most destabilizing event in the Middle East in decades.

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Turkey-Israel relations continue to degrade

September 7, 2011

Israeli business site Globes reports that Turkey momentarily severed commercial relations with Israel yesterday, before issuing a clarification limiting the ban to military ties and to state sponsored relations, allowing commercial activities between private companies to remain.  This was on the heels of the Turkish announcement of a presidential visit to Egypt to secure a new military agreement, and a proposal that Prime Minister Erdogan would use the occasion to break the Israeli embargo and personally visit Gaza via the Egyptian border crossing.

This more active and aggressive foreign policy might be appealing to the Turkish electorate, but Erdogan is boxing his nation in with hostile neighbors – a decades long cold war with Greece to the west, what is fast becoming a similar situation with Israel to the south, and a restive Kurdish population to the east.  At the same time, he is courting potential discord with the European Union over Cyprus (an EU member that is set to ascend to the EU presidency soon).  Although Turks claim that they are not turning away from the West, soon enough they may have no more friends there.

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Turkey agrees to host NATO missile defense radars

September 2, 2011

Yesterday, we wrote about Chinese and Russian advances in their ballistic missile defense systems.  Today comes word that Turkey will host a NATO missile defense radar, ostensibly aimed at defending against potential attacks from Iran, but also capable of detecting launches from Russia.   Turkey is a crucial nation to watch as the coalitioning phase of the current long cycle unwinds.  Although the Turks have been long time allies of the United States and Western Europe through their NATO membership, they have also been flirting with Russia and China and continue to seek to make their own way.

UPDATE:  Predictably, the Russians are complaining.

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Turkey the next bubble?

August 9, 2011

The usually prescient Spengler has been ringing this bell for months.  His latest:

Erdogan’s bubble recalls Argentina in 2000 or Mexico in 1994, where a brief boom financed by short-term foreign capital flows led to currency devaluation and a deep economic slump. In the advent of the June 12 national elections, which returned Erdogan as prime minister, the Turkish government bought votes through cheap credit.

. . . Financing higher consumption with short-term debt helps explain why Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) crushed its secular opposition in the elections. Erdogan campaigned on his success as an economic manager rather than his Islamist ambitions, with good reason, for most Turks cares more about material welfare than the AKP’s religious agenda.

An economic slump would undercut Erdogan’s ability to govern. His confrontation with his country’s military leaders, who last week resigned en masse to protest the persecution of senior officers on fanciful allegations of political crimes, points to the deep fissure in Turkish politics.

. . . Now that the Cairo mob has turned against the “Internet-savvy” protesters on Tahrir Square, Libya and Yemen remain immersed in civil war, and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime butchers civilians, there is not a single stable polity in the Arab world outside of Saudi Arabia, whose circumstances are unique. What I called “the Internet bubble in Middle East politics” in a February 16 essay (See here) has popped, to the embarrassment of the Western reporters who drooled over the Internet cafe-flies who prompted Egypt’s popular rebellion.  If it turns out – as I predict – that the “Turkish model” differed little from the old Latin American borrow-and-bully model, we should conclude that no successful political model presently exists in the Muslim world.

Read the whole thing.  The question that follows is:  In which direction does Turkey turn for help?  The West is teetering financially and may not be able to help.  Does a failure of “the Turkish model” push Turkey further into the Russian/Chinese orbit?

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Turkey preparing for de facto invasion of Syria

June 16, 2011

The Telegraph reports that, fearing a refugee crisis due to the instability and repression in neighboring Syria, the Turkish military has developed plans to enter that country and carve out a “safe haven” in which it can intern refugees and prevent their entry into Turkey.

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