Posts Tagged ‘Pakistan’

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Terror as geostrategic lever

January 24, 2012

Geopolitically, Pakistan is hemmed in between Iran to its west and India to its east.  In India, it has what it believes to be a mortal enemy with which it has been at various levels of war since independence; in Iran, it has a rival for leadership in the Islamic world.   Pakistani leaders would like their nation to be the center of a pan-Islamic quasi-Caliphate to balance the growing power of India.  To that end, it’s Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence has built what some call “an empire of terror” throughout the nations of Central Asia.  ISI has a in every pie, with the dual goals of thwarting other Islamic nations for leadership (Iran and, increasingly, Turkey) plus building a deterrent for India.  Window on the Heartland has recently posted an overview of Pakistan’s use of terror as a geostrategic lever:

Pakistan has always desired to expand its influence in Afghanistan and beyond. Central Asia is seen as an area of natural expansion for the country. Islamabad’s objectives in the region are determined by its geopolitical imperative: to turn itself into the leader of an Islamic bloc stretching from the Black Sea to China able to counter India’s influence and become an autonomous actor on the international scene. In this context, the destabilizing efforts carried out by the ISI through support to terrorist groups in Central Asia since the early 90s have been aimed at creating the right conditions so that the Pakistani leadership could gradually take over from of other major powers such as Russia, China and the United States.

Read the whole thing.

The ISI has built what is in essence a model for a low-tech, asymmetric analog to the integrated defense network centered on complex weapons systems that the US is building.

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India steps up in Afghanistan

December 7, 2011

Although Pakistan has long believed that Afghanistan was in their sphere of influence, their arch-rival India is preparing to step into the breach when US forces leave:

plans are already in the final stages of receiving Indian government clearance for an extensive training schedule for the fledgling Afghan National Army (ANA) at training institutions across the country.

The program is the first concrete follow-up on military-to-military cooperation under the umbrella of the Strategic Partnership Agreement that was signed between Kabul and New Delhi in October, when Afghan President Hamid Karzai was given a grand reception in India.

Under the agreement, India, which has the world’s third-largest army, agreed to train, equip and build the capacity of the Afghan forces.

Sources in the Indian security establishment familiar with the contours of the detailed schedule say Kabul and New Delhi have identified three areas to focus on, namely increasing the intake of officers in India’s premier training institutes; providing specialized training to middle and higher level officers already operating in the Afghan National Army (ANA); and training soldiers in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorist operations by seconding them to various regimental centers across India.

 

 

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China seeks to build military bases in Pakistan

October 25, 2011

From the Asia Times:

The Chinese desire is meant to contain growing terrorist activities of Chinese rebels belonging to the al-Qaeda-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) that is also described as the Turkistani Islamic Party (TIP).   The Chinese Muslim rebels want the creation of an independent Islamic state and are allegedly being trained in the tribal areas of Pakistan. According to well-placed diplomatic circles in Islamabad, Beijing’s wish for a military presence in Pakistan was discussed at length by the political and military leadership of both countries in recent months as China (which views the Uyghur separatist sentiment as a dire threat) has become ever-more concerned about Pakistan’s tribal areas as a haven for radicals.

Pakistan is more eager to have the Chinese begin building the long discussed naval base at Gwadar, part of China’s long term “string of pearls” strategy.  Perhaps allowing military bases on their frontier will part of a quid pro quo for Gwadar.  In any case, Pakistan is playing a delicate game.  For decades, they curried favor with the US as a means of balancing the power of their arch rival India.  However, as the Americans have grown tired of their duplicity and double dealing, they are switching to China.  However, a Chinese presence in Pakistan is likely to provoke India to beef up its own military presence in the region.

Central Asia is suddenly bristling with great power military forces.  India has been making efforts to build a presence in both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; Russia retains a strong presence their, both economically and militarily, and the US remains engaged not only in Afghanistan but also in Kazakstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan through its Northern Distribution Network.  Now, China seeks to add troops to the mix.   Aggressive Chinese expansion of influence already has observers wondering whether they are allies or competitors with Russia.  With actual military forces of all these great powers jostling in close proximity, the potential for conflict only seems to be growing.

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Dealing with the Pakistan problem

October 3, 2011

India’s relationship with Pakistan is at once more complicated, more intimate, and vastly more deadly than is our own.    Still, although the situations are not analogous, there is much that US policymakers can learn from the experience of the Indians.  Sushant Sareen, writing for India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, today offers a bit of that perspective.  Pakistan is maddening, even for those who know it best and whose very existence is threatened by that nation’s nuclear force.  At the end of the day, Pakistan’s own latent instability is what is saving it – for both India and the US, the only thing more dangerous than the deceitful, duplicitious and dysfunctional state that is contemporary Pakistan is the anarchic vacuum that would be left should that state fail or be toppled.  Sareen’s piece ends with a wistful imagining of a day when the US finally “solves” the Pakistani riddle and lets loose its fury.  I don’t think that day will ever come, as I don’t believe that riddle is solvable.  Maybe the best that can be hoped for is to pawn the Pakistanis off onto the Chinese.

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