Morad Ouasti from GlobeAnalytics.com has published a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) based analysis on arms transfers to Asian nations from weapon producing nations. Overall, the report shows that, despite occasional spikes, there has been a steady decline in arms transfers to both Middle East and Far East nations over the 20 year period from 1989 to 2009. What is most interesting about the report, in my opinion, is the way that it graphically represents the rivalry between the US and Russia for influence in East Asia over the last decade. Beginning about 1999, Russia surpassed the US in arms transfers to Far Eastern nations, but both are near parity today. The charts below clearly show the “battle lines” that are being drawn – Russia has been funneling large amounts of material to China and India, while the US has been sending smaller amounts to a larger number of clients – Taiwan, Japan and South Korea chief among them. The US has also been ramping up its deliveries to other nations on the Asian Pacific rim, and has also made a concerted effort to enter into arms packages with India. While many analysts see China as the primary challenger to US influence in the coming decades, this analysis shows how big a role Russia continues to play on the geopolitical chessboard.
Archive for the ‘Geopolitics of Weapons Systems’ Category

US geostrategic reach and capabilities are growing, not shrinking
January 23, 2012Daniel Drezner wrote this past weekend that “predictions about the death of American hegemony may have been greatly exaggerated.” Drezner points out that, among other things, the preponderance of US military power vis a vis China is even greater today than it was 20 years ago. And, with older weapons systems being phased out and newer, more advanced ones coming on line, that disparity is about to grow even greater. Key to that, and a primary threat to any Chinese designs on challenging US hegemony, is the F-35 Joint Strike Figher.
Dr. Robbin Laird writing at US Naval Institute’s journal Proceedings details how, by combining the F-35 with existing (and developing) Aegis technology, the US is building a global, mobile defense network that will far outmatch anything any competitor can field:
Originally designed as a Cold War tool to bolster fleet defense against a challenging Soviet Navy, the Aegis program has since the 1970s evolved and morphed. Among the factors that have exponentially increased the core program’s capabilities, the software and microelectronics revolution has played a major role. Targeting precision, C4ISR, and missile technologies have all developed, and today Aegis is a key element in global missile defense. Of central relevance not only to the program but to global security, Aegis coupled with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will provide unprecedented modular flexibility at sea for U.S. command authority and our allies as they shape responses to inevitable future crises.
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South Korea illustrates how multiple basing in the F-35 age can work. That nation, in its ongoing defense against North Korea, has defensive systems against missiles and a good army. In the F-35 era, defense and offense are transformed into strategic mobility. Now, instead of investing in static systems able to do nothing other than await invasion, South Korea has flexible forces that can operate in national defense, participate regionally, and contribute to a global reserve capability. Aegis at-sea systems are a key element of sea-based defensive capability that has been provided with strategic mobility.
Add the F-35Bs to the South Korean military, and now you can disperse force, complicate any North Korean attack, and add this capability to the country’s mobile naval force that currently is being rolled out. Deterrence of China is also enhanced, because mobility of operations from South Korea makes China’s thinking more difficult. For one thing, there is no single line of attack on U.S. forces. If the Chinese should target Guam, we would now have multiple bases from the sea and land from which the 360-degree-enabled F-35s coupled with Aegis and other systems would provide a troubling situation for our enemy, who would not be guaranteed success with a large-area single strike.
The U.S. Navy’s Aegis program is an important contributor to shaping the foundation for such a global system. Because all current Aegis navies are potential candidates for the F-35, with the deployment of the Joint Strike Fighter will come important sensor capabilities around the world. We have the opportunity to create an integrated air-sea sensor net for deployed fleets that provides, in turn, a growing ability to shape missile-defense forces and protective cover for global-presence forces.
These F-35-Aegis offense and defense bubbles can be networked throughout the Pacific to enhance the capacity of individual nations. They represent a prime example of how one country’s assets can contribute to the reach others, together establishing a scalable capability for a honeycombed force.
Overall, the enterprise lays a foundation for a global capability in sea-based missile defenses and for protecting deployed forces as well as projecting force. Power such as this is increasingly central to the freedom of action necessary for the worldwide operation of the U.S. military and our coalition partners.
The F-35 is not without its problems – the naval variant will be delayed for an indefinite period because of a design error that renders it functionally useless - but the lead that the US maintains over the entire world in terms of military technology will remain wide for the foreseeable future.

Norwegion Defense Minister fears NATO is losing capability
January 17, 2012Despite the apparent success of the Libya intervention, Norwegian Defense Minister Espen Barth Eide fears that the operation actually indicates that the alliance is losing its capability to conduct military operations.
“Article 5 is not in such a good shape,” said Espen Barth Eide, speaking before an audience assembled at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “I’m not talking about political will, but the actual ability to deliver if something happens in the trans-Atlantic theater of a more classical type of aggression.”
Exercises have shown that NATO’s ability to conduct conventional military operations has markedly declined, Barth Eide said.
Barth Eide is particularly worried about the state of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter due to uncertainties caused by the pending $480 billion cut in US defense budgets. Many European nations have relied on the aging F-16, which will end its service life at the end of the current decade. Delays in F-35 production could leave such countries without advanced defense aircraft. Barth Eide is attempting to create a consortium of such nations to coordinate their F-35 purchases in order to ensure that the production run continues. I have written in the past how the US has managed to use F-35 partnerships and purchases as a geopolitical lever; we must be certain to consider this when making decisions about the future of the weapon system. We cannot be penny wise and pound foolish – if we are not going to keep our forces on the ground locally, then we must insure that local governments remain tethered to our defense network in other ways, and sophisticated weapons systems are excellent ways of doing so. Norway, in particular, is an important ally. They intend to purchase not only the F-35, but also AEGIS systems that will form part of the ballistic missile defense network.

DoD ramps up F35 production runs for foreign buyers
January 9, 2012The Department of Defense has awarded $194 billion worth of contracts for the next production run of the F35 fighter. This in itself is not an unusual story, but InsideDefense.com reports (registration and purchase required) that Pentago officials expect the next two production runs to be as much as 40% larger than originally planned, due to an expected surge in foreign orders. Foreign sales will be to formal F-35 partners such as UK, Turkey, Australia, Italy and Norway. Israel will also take delivery of 3 out of a planned total of 25 jets. However, these were all anticipated purchases and do not represent any “surge” of purchases. Late last year, Japan announced that it would purchase over 40 F-35s, and others anticipated that South Korea would purchase a similar number. India, after having ruled the F-35 out of its own competition for their next generation fighter, also re-opened to door to that possibility.
The F-35 is a crucial indicator in the Geopolitics of Defense Systems. Nations that purchase such advanced weapons systems tie themselves and their national defense to the United States in complex ways. The DoD had been purchasing F-35s at a slow rate, so a ramping up of productions capability might be a genuine sign that the big East and South Asian purchases are indeed forthcoming.
