Archive for the ‘2012 election’ Category

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Canada to sell Alberta oil to Asia

January 20, 2012

In the wake of the Obama administration’s decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline, Canadian officials have responded by announcing their determination to sell the products of the oil sands to Asia and, in particular, to China.  It was easy to see this one coming – the alternate (and more environmentally risky) route has already been mapped out.

In the past, I wrote that Obama would be able to campaign in 2012 on his foreign policy successes, but this one decision undercuts that entire theme.  His GOP opponent, whomever that turns out to be, can easily cast the Keystone XL decision as one that hurts the US and aids our greatest challenger (China) in one fell swoop.

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How to lose money and waste resources on a grand scale

December 12, 2011

The green energy bonanza grew quickly, produced vastly less return than investment in fossil assets, destroyed its investor credibility and image in public opinion, and is now declining sharply.

That is Andrew McKillop on what he calls “the trillion dollar boondoggle” of green energy investing.  This is, I believe, a very important piece.  Read the whole thing, and remember it when you hear politicians rambling about the promise of the “green energy economy” in the upcoming election season:

We can ask: did a carbon trader running a “carousel” trade of buying emissions permits in a European country where VAT is not applied, and selling it another where VAT is applied – then pocketing the difference and running for it – really contribute to the sacred quest to “fight” global warming ? From 2005 to 2009 this was regular practice on those squeaky clean carbon markets of the European ETS. About 5 billion euro-per-year (around $6.5 billion/year) went down the drain, or in fact exiled itself to the Cayman Is and other “climate conscious” outposts of the neo capitalist financial community, simply from that one single rip-off. One among a long list of others. All known. All documented. All ignored by our political deciders who like to “keep the party going” with their finance sector chums.

 

Posted in 2012 election, energy policy | Tagged , , | Leave a Comment »

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The political logic for a major US strike at Iran

November 9, 2011

 Yesterday, I blogged on Alexander Wilner’s analysis of the balance of forces in the Persian Gulf and the US and Israeli options for dealing with Iran’s imminent nuclear power status.  As I continue to mull over the implications of that piece, I am coming to the conclusion that the US will launch a serious attack on Iran in the upcoming months.  When you look at the options, they basically fall into two categories – Playing for Time and Going on the Offensive.   In a normal political environment,  I would lean toward the Playing for Time options.  However, given that we are now less than a year from a presidential election and that President Obama’s domestic agenda is foundering, I think the more likely path is to Go on the Offensive sooner rather than later.  A major US attack that destroys much of Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure would allow Obama to run as America’s most effective Warrior President since FDR.  He could then campaign on the facts that he:

  • ended the war in Iraq and is winding down the war in Afghanistan
  • drove long-time US nemesis Muamar Gaddafi from power
  • killed Osama bin Laden
  • smashed the Iranian nuclear program

And, if the action vs. Iran is decisive enough, it might provide the final impetus for toppling Iran’s man in Damascus, which would be another feather in Obama’s cap.

Personally, I believe that Obama already has the inside track to reelection in 2012 – the Democrats begin with a structural advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes, while the GOP is on the verge of nominating either a deeply flawed national candidate or one who, while theoretically “more electable” does not fire up their base and risks losing the turnout battle in swing states.  But, even if a narrow Obama victory is the most likely outcome at the moment, it is likely that a convincing victory in Iran would be enough to seal the deal.

That is not to say, however, that a strike on Iran purely would be a cynical and politically driven decision.  The fact of the matter is that the destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities is a highly desirable strategic outcome for the US.

Posted in 2012 election | 2 Comments »

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More on GOP ties to Solyndra

September 27, 2011

I noted two weeks ago that the GOP bears a share of the blame for the taxpayer losses in the Solyndra bankruptcy, as the loan guarantees were made possible because of a bill passed by the GOP-controlled Congress and signed into law by President GW Bush.  Over at Reason, Ira Stoll notes that origin of the legal authority and also expands on the breadth and depth of Republican connections to Solyndra.

To repeat from my original post on the topic:  Solyndra is not the scandal.  The scandal is the culture of crony capitalism in Washington – aided and abetted by both parties.  The only difference is in which particular businesses (or business sectors) that each side throws its weight behind.  I have great hopes that the Tea Party revolt maintains its ideals and changes this culture.  That is why I agree with Lexington Green over at the Chicago Boyz blog, who writes today:

I am thinking more and more that the GOP presidential candidate is a distraction.

Whoever it is will be better much than Mr. Obama, so don’t worry about it. Mr. Obama makes Mitt Romney look like George Washington.

So, what does matter?

Making sure we have a Tea Party Congress in 2012 is the most important thing.

Then the 2013-15 political era will be a conflict between a corporatist Republican in the White House and a populist Congress down the street.

Some good could come of that.

Read the whole thing

Posted in 2012 election, corporatism, crony capitalism | Tagged , , , | Leave a Comment »

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Jon Huntsman’s New Jobs Plan is Big on Energy

August 31, 2011

The centerpiece to Huntsman’s policy proposal is his massive overhaul of the tax system, eliminating most tax breaks (including some extremely popular ones) in exchange for drastically lower rates of  8%, 14% and 23% (plus a drop of the corporate rate to 25% and a scheme to repatriate foreign earnings).  As James Pethokoukis notes, this plan “looks like perhaps the most pro-growth, pro-market (and anti-crony capitalist) tax plan put forward by a major U.S. president candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1980.”

Although tax policy is the aspect that will garner the most attention, Huntsman also focuses on liberating America’s vast untapped energy sources, including shale oil (and, as former governor of Utah, he probably has more detailed knowledge about the pros, cons and roadblocks of that potential resource than anyone in the field).

Personally, I think you have to pass a carbon tax to go along with this in order to narrow the significant political opposition it will face.  A carbon tax that includes tradeable tax credits for various activities that reduce CO2 would be both a political and financial boon for fossil energy advocates, IMO.

Disclosure:   I have contributed financially to Huntsman’s campaign and he is my first choice for the GOP nomination, even though I am not a registered member of the party.  Yes, I am the guy who gets him to 1% in the polls.   (FWIW, my second choice, is Gary Johnson, showing you just how far out of the Republican mainstream I reside)

Posted in 2012 election, carbon credits, shale oil | Tagged , , , | Leave a Comment »

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Iraq security situation crumbling; Libya operation failing

July 30, 2011

via BBC:

A top US adviser on Iraq has accused the US military of glossing over an upsurge in violence, just months before its troops are due to be withdrawn.

Iraq is more dangerous now than a year ago, said a report issued by the US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Stuart W Bowen Junior.

He said the killing of US soldiers and senior Iraqi figures, had risen, along with attacks in Baghdad .

The report contradicts usually upbeat assessments from the US military.

It comes as Washington is preparing to withdraw its remaining 47,000 troops from Iraq by the end of the year, despite fears that the Iraqi security forces might not be ready to take over fully.

“Iraq remains an extraordinarily dangerous place to work,” Mr Bowen concluded in his quarterly report to Congress. “It is less safe, in my judgment, than 12 months ago.”

The report cited the deaths of 15 US soldiers in June – the bloodiest month for the American military in two years – but also said more Iraqi officials had been assassinated in the past few months than in any other recent period.

I though as recently as a month ago that Barack Obama would be able to campaign in 2012 as the president who got Bin Laden, who deposed Gaddafi, and who presided over the last act of a minor victory in Iraq.   Today, it looks like only the first is a sure thing.  The Libya operation, which should have been a certain victory of grinding attrition, is on the cusp of failure  (see also here, here, here and here)- an unbelievable outcome that seems to require almost willful mismanagement.    Suddenly, the Obama 2012 campaign looks to running on the rails of debt and defeat.   Given the structural advantage of the Democrats in the Electoral College, the powers of incumbency, and the very large Obama war chest, I had long assumed that re-election was inevitable.  As inevitable as a victory in Libya, perhaps?  But there is nothing so certain that it cannot be lost by an incompetent executive.

Posted in 2012 election, geopolitics, Iraq, Libya, Obama | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment »

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