Archive for October, 2011
October 31, 2011
TomCo is the London-based company with leases on large blocks of land in the shale oil rich region of the Uinta Basin in Utah. This summer, they announced that they had awarded contracts to begin pre-development of these leases. This month, their stock has shown a breakout:
Rumor has it (sorry, no links) that their partner RedLeaf Resources, the developers of the revolutionary EcoShale process that enables the production of kerogen oil without the use of water, will begin production on their own leases in early 2013, with TomCo to follow as soon as later that year.
The development of shale oil in an economical and environmentally friendly matter will be an even bigger game changer than has been the development of shale gas. I am told (again, all rumor and scuttlebutt, no links) that November could be a big month for shale oil news.
I am not invested in TomCo, but I have been told that shares are very difficult to come by this week. I do not know if that is irrational exuberance or simply the result of reasoned knowledge and well founded expectations, but I am hopeful for the latter, only because I want to see this shale resource brought to market on a large scale and the EcoShale process is so promising on so many fronts.
Posted in shale oil | Tagged shale oil | Leave a Comment »
October 31, 2011
The long time American military commitment to the Persian Gulf region will not end when US forces leave Iraq at the end of 2011. There is already word that the Pentagon and Obama Administration are preparing to beef up the American military presence in the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. This is almost farcical. One of the major issues put forth by Osama bin Laden in his original fatwa against the US was the presence of “infidel” military forces in Saudi Arabia, home of Islams two most holy cities. One of the great benefits of the Iraq war was that, by removing Saddam Hussein’s perpetual threat to the Gulf oil fields, it allowed the US to remove its forces from Saudi Arabia, and in so doing to remove a driving force for jihad against America. Now, due to what seems like blind disregard, the US will be forced to redeploy military forces to the Land of the Two Mosques. What was one of the few clear benefits of the Iraq War is being tossed away. This just sets us up for another generation of radicals with a clear grievance against the US to emerge . . . we are right back where we started.
In the other theater of the rapidly ending War on Terror, the State Department has launched the “New Silk Road” initiative to fill the gap as the US military mission to Afghanistan winds down. On paper, this seems like a good idea, but Americans have had a number of good ideas on paper. The Bug Pit points out that most people in the region believe this effort will prove to be “unfeasible . . . and so not worth worrying too much about.” And, if it does turn out to be feasible, it does not appear from published statements that State has not game planned for what would be a robust Russian response.
I think a New Silk Road is a promising strategy, but it has to have real support. It would help if there was a general foreign policy consensus in the US that bridged various administrations, as containment of the Soviet Union did for so long. I humbly submit that an awareness of Long Cycle Theory in general and EnerGeoPolitcs in particular might go a long way toward creating that consensus. We are nearing the endpoint of the current phase, probably within 20-30 years, and the coalitioning ahead of that macrodecision is occurring now, whether we actively acknowledge it or not.
Posted in Central Asia, Coalitioning, Grand Strategy, Long Cycle Theory, Middle East, Persian Gulf | Tagged coalitioning, GCC, Long Cycle Theory, New Silk Road, Saudi Arabia | 1 Comment »
October 29, 2011
Eurasia Review details the numerous recent Turkish actions that have strained what was a once blossoming relationship between Turkey and Iran. In reality, the Turks and Persians have been rivals for regional influence for centuries, so it was always unlikely that the newfound friendship would last, but it has unraveled quickly. Some of the issues that Iran has with Turkey are:
- Turkish support for the opponents to the Iranian client regime in Syria
- Turkish coordination with the US on Syrian policy
- Turkish support for democracy and secular governments in Muslim states
- Turkish drive for influence in post-American Iraq
- and the biggest one of all, Turkey agreeing to host a US anti-missile radar, which could neuter Iran’s great power ambitions
Iran has a small circle of friends, and among them, Turkey is very important because of growing economic ties between the two nations. Turkey holds the upper hand in this relationship, and it will be interesting to watch this relationship develop.
Long time readers will notice that I tend to write a lot about Turkey. This is because of this blog’s focus on Long Cycle Theory in general and on the current coalitioning phase of LTC. It is our belief that Turkey is a bell weather nation that will determine the path of that cycle.
Posted in Coalitioning, Iran, Long Cycle Theory, Turkey | Tagged coalitioning, Iran, Long Cycle Theory, Turkey | Leave a Comment »
October 28, 2011
After reports last month that the US was building “a constellation of secret drone bases” across East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, and news earlier this month that an American combat team had been deployed to Uganda to kill or capture Lord’s Resistance Army leader Joseph Kony, the report that the US is backing Kenya’s invasion of Somalia is perhaps unsurprising. On top of that news comes confirmation of the completion of one of those drone bases, in Ethiopia (although the Ethiopian government officially denies what locals can see with their own eyes). The latter Washington Post story contains several tidbits of information about the growing US military presence in East Africa:
Mindful of the 1993 “Black Hawk Down” debacle in which two U.S. military helicopters were shot down in the Somali capital of Mogadishu and 18 Americans killed, the Obama administration has sought to avoid deploying troops to the country.
As a result, the United States has relied on lethal drone attacks, a burgeoning CIA presence in Mogadishu and small-scale missions carried out by U.S. Special Forces. In addition, the United States has increased its funding for and training of African peacekeeping forces in Somalia that fight al-Shabab.
. . . The Air Force operates a small fleet of Reapers from the Seychelles, a tropical archipelago in the Indian Ocean, about 800 miles from the Somali coast.
The U.S. military also operates drones — both armed versions and models used strictly for surveillance — from Djibouti, a tiny African nation that abuts northwest Somalia at the junction of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. About 3,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, the only permanent U.S. base on the African continent.
The article also contains an admission by a Kenyan official that the US has provided unspecified “technical assistance” for the Somali invasion, a claim which the US officially denies.
Posted in East Africa, Somalia | Tagged drones, East Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia | 1 Comment »
October 27, 2011
Bret Stephens connects some dots and raises some very disturbing points in this essay. Is Iran using Hezbollah and other non-traditional combatants to link up with drug cartels and disaffected Latin Americans to attack the United States through it’s “soft underbelly” of Latin America?
Read the whole thing. And remember, too, that China is also spending money and effort to become a strategic force in South America. For all the talk of Obama’s foreign policy successes, he has not done much to shore up our southern flank.
Posted in Iran | Tagged Hezbollah, Iran, South America | 1 Comment »
October 27, 2011
Last year, the USGS assessed the potential energy bounty of billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean, primarily around Israel. Since its inception, Israel has had the misfortune of being one of the very few Middle Eastern nations without massive energy reserves. This discovery would change the character of Israel both economically and strategically. Not only would there be enough oil and gas to power the nation, but the potential to export resources to energy hungry Europe would not only bring in foreign revenues, but also fundamentally change a number of dependency relationships.
However, Israeli-Turkish relations have been on the decline (since before this discovery, but more rapidly since then). Now, Turkey has taken things a step further, announcing that Turkey would block any Israeli access to European markets via the pipeline network that transits Turkey:
Turkey will not permit the transit of natural gas produced in Israel, linking the rejection to the present state of relations between the two nations. Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said Turkey has turned down requests private firms to allow the transit of natural gas produced in Israel through Turkey to Europe.
Turkish-Israeli relations have been tense since the attack on a Gaza-bound flotilla on May 30, 2010 that killed nine Turkish nationals. In very blunt terms, Yildiz stated: “Had not nine of our nationals been murdered, there could be major developments in the energy distribution in the Mediterranean Sea. [Then] we would not have rejected the demand by private firms,” he said on Friday.
The Minister’s comments also reflect adverserial positions on the contested drilling by Cyprus in the Levant Basin of Mediterranean Sea.
The flotilla deaths are a cover, IMO, for a hard nosed geopolitical calculation. Turkey seeks to dominate the Eastern Mediterranean militarily and economically. It needs to weaken Israel in both realms, and as an aside, probably has its own designs on the energy resources.
Posted in geopolitics, Israel, natural gas, oil, Turkey | Tagged geopolitics, Israel, natural gas, Turkey | Leave a Comment »
October 26, 2011
The Defense Security Service has released an unclassified report (link will download and open a pdf file) on their annual trend analysis of espionage efforts targeting US military technology and other defense secrets. Analysts report a “stunning increase” in such attacks:
In fiscal year 2010 (FY10), the Defense Security Service (DSS) witnessed a stunning increase of over 140 percent in the number of suspicious contact reports (SCRs) determined to be of intelligence value. This growth occurred globally: all regions yielded more SCRs in FY10 than in FY09. The increase likely resulted not only from aggressive foreign collection targeting cleared industry, but also the diligence of cleared industry in identifying and reporting suspicious activity. For example, improved awareness about computer network operations likely accounted for the considerable increase in the number of SCRs reporting suspicious activity on cleared contractor networks.
Technology collection spanned the entire spectrum of categories on the Militarily Critical Technologies List. Industry reporting indicated that information systems (IS) received the most attention from foreign entities during FY10. Entities from five of the six geographic regions targeted IS technology more than any other sector; entities from Africa targeted IS technology equally with aeronautics and lasers, optics, and sensors (LO&S). This global tendency to target IS technology likely results from continued U.S. dominance in IS technology development, design, and integration. Also remaining consistent with previous years, LO&S and aeronautics were the next most commonly targeted technology sections.
Posted in military | Tagged defense industry, espionage | Leave a Comment »
October 26, 2011
Thoughtful piece today (link will download pdf file) from Joyce van de Bildt, writing for the Dayan Center. Van de Bildt examines one serious problem that European nations with large populations of immigrant Muslims are struggling with: religious leadership in expatriate communities that tend to impede the process of assimilation. While concerns about radicalization and fomenting of homegrown jihadis will always be present, they may in fact be overblown. However, the lack of full assimilation with Western culture and values is certainly an issue and may prove to be more dangerous than the more overt security concerns. Van de Bildt writes:
One little noticed result of the events of September 11, 2001, is that it drew the attention of European states to the problematique of an ongoing influx of foreign imams (Muslim religious leaders) into their countries. Indeed, the large majority of imams currently serving in European mosques are recruited in Muslim countries. Trained in traditional madrasas, Imam Hatip schools in Turkey or other religious institutions somewhere in the Middle East, they are generally unfamiliar with Western, multicultural societies. In an attempt to take matters into their own hands, European governments have sought to establish imam education programs at local universities. The initiative is significant in both the security and societal realms: it is an attempt to prevent the domination of radical imams and ensure that imams play a positive role in the integration of Muslims into Western society.
The issue of separation of church and state is a very tricky one here. Yes, the concerns are legitimate, but imagine the howls of protest if the state sought to step in and certify their own versions of clergy for the Catholic or Lutheran or any other Christian faith. Given that the foreign born Imams already practicing are already state certified by their home nations, makes it even more, not less, tricky, IMO.
Read the whole thing.
Posted in Europe | Tagged Europe, Islam | Leave a Comment »
October 25, 2011
That is the fear of some observers. Read Bill Opalka’s report at RenewablesBiz.com. And, be sure to read the two (as of this posting) very thoughtful comments. The first points out the self-defeating aspect of government trade intervention – the flood of Chinese made solar panels has driven the price of solar generated electricity down, but it is still not competitive with fossil fuels. Imposing tariffs will only move solar further from the goal of parity. The second is a good argument for a focus on the primary use of solar as distributed, micro-power, rather than for centralized, large scale utilities.
Posted in solar, solar power | Tagged solar power | Leave a Comment »
October 25, 2011
From the Asia Times:
The Chinese desire is meant to contain growing terrorist activities of Chinese rebels belonging to the al-Qaeda-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) that is also described as the Turkistani Islamic Party (TIP). The Chinese Muslim rebels want the creation of an independent Islamic state and are allegedly being trained in the tribal areas of Pakistan. According to well-placed diplomatic circles in Islamabad, Beijing’s wish for a military presence in Pakistan was discussed at length by the political and military leadership of both countries in recent months as China (which views the Uyghur separatist sentiment as a dire threat) has become ever-more concerned about Pakistan’s tribal areas as a haven for radicals.
Pakistan is more eager to have the Chinese begin building the long discussed naval base at Gwadar, part of China’s long term “string of pearls” strategy. Perhaps allowing military bases on their frontier will part of a quid pro quo for Gwadar. In any case, Pakistan is playing a delicate game. For decades, they curried favor with the US as a means of balancing the power of their arch rival India. However, as the Americans have grown tired of their duplicity and double dealing, they are switching to China. However, a Chinese presence in Pakistan is likely to provoke India to beef up its own military presence in the region.
Central Asia is suddenly bristling with great power military forces. India has been making efforts to build a presence in both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan; Russia retains a strong presence their, both economically and militarily, and the US remains engaged not only in Afghanistan but also in Kazakstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan through its Northern Distribution Network. Now, China seeks to add troops to the mix. Aggressive Chinese expansion of influence already has observers wondering whether they are allies or competitors with Russia. With actual military forces of all these great powers jostling in close proximity, the potential for conflict only seems to be growing.
Posted in Central Asia, China, Coalitioning, CSTO, India, Russia, Shanghai Cooperation Organization | Tagged Central Asia, China, coalitioning, CSTO, Pakistan, SCO | Leave a Comment »
October 24, 2011
In my personal, daily life, prior to this past weekend I had encountered just one Nissan Leaf and two Chevy Volts being operated in daily, private use. Those numbers have essentially doubled as, since Friday, I have seen three of each vehicle. Putting all the technical aspects aside, I have a distinct “curb appeal” reaction to each vehicle.
Let me start with the Volt: Bluntly, I hate this car. It is bland and boring, the “VOLT” badge is too prominent and pasted on too many surfaces. It looks like Just Another Chevy, and it “feels” like something that will age poorly. It certainly does not look like a $40K car, which is probably why sales have been so lackluster. Any excitement potential buyers feel over being part of the EV vanguard must rapidly evaporate when they come face to face with the unimaginative sheet metal of the Volt.
I get just the opposite feeling from the Leaf. This does not look like Just Another Nissan. The styling is hip, youthful and modern. Although it fits well into the current design trend of vehicles like the Scion Xb, Kia Soul, or even Nissan’s own Cube, the Leaf has its own personality. It still does not look like a $35K car (rather, it looks like one of those $18K car in it’s stylistic family), but the look itself is so fashion forward that it will likely enhance the potential buyer’s feeling of being in the vanguard, rather than deflate that feeling.
Personally, I am not a big fan of EVs. I think the technology is immature and, consequently, the prices are too inflated. They will be both better and cheaper in 5 or 10 years. But, if I was in the market for a dedicated car for short commutes and daily urban tasks, I would take the Leaf over the Volt, just on looks alone. I don’t believe either one of them will have good re-sale value after 5 years, but of the two, I think the Leaf looks more likely to retain more value.
Posted in electric vehicles | Tagged electric vehicles, Leaf, VOLT | Leave a Comment »
October 24, 2011
Energy Central reports that the East Kentucky Power Cooperative, working in conjunction with the University of Kentucky and the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet, will begin a full scale test of the ability of an “aggressive carbon sequestration” approach next week. Algae, which uses CO2 as food, will be placed in a series of interconnected tubes and set up at a power plant in Eastern Kentucky. The algae should reduce the plant’s carbon emissions. If successful, such an approach would be a much more cost effective carbon capture and sequestration strategy than others currently envisioned. The algae would capture and sequester the CO2 at the site, rather than requiring expensive transport or pipeline systems. Further, there is additional research underway that would then harvest the algae and convert it to liquid fuel.
Posted in alt-fuels, carbon capture and sequestration, CCS | Tagged carbon capture and sequestration, CCS | Leave a Comment »
October 21, 2011
Plamen Plantev argues that various exogenous factors – from the global financial crisis to the “Arab Spring” to the breakdown of Turkish/Israeli relations have led to a stagnation of geopolitical activity in the Black Sea region. The region is still of great geopolitical import, Plantev, notes, but is currently of little strategic interest from outside players whose attention is focused elsewhere.
I am not so sure. The Atlantic Council recently made news with its proposal for sending US troops to Georgia, while the US is building its missile defense system with a base in Romania and a radar array in Turkey. Indeed, as the Coalitioning phase of the current cycle continues, I believe that alliances with the nations of Ukraine, Turkey and the various Trans Caucusus states are considered prizes of importance by the great powers jockeying for position.
Posted in Coalitioning, geopolitics | Tagged Black Sea, coalitioning, geopolitics | Leave a Comment »
October 20, 2011
so argues Gideon Rachman at the Financial Times:
Those who refuse to entertain any discussion of decline actually risk accelerating the process. A realistic acknowledgement that America’s position in the world is under threat should be a spur to determined action on everything from educational reform to the budget deficit. The endless politicking in Washington reflects a certain complacency – a belief that America’s position as number one is so impregnable that it can afford self-indulgent episodes such as the summer’s near-debt default.
I largely agree with Rachman, although I differ with him greatly on the particulars. Rachman points to Britain’s “managed decline” from global hegemon following World War II, a position made easier by the fact that they were handing leadership over to a very similar United States. I concur with this analogy; indeed, only last month, I mentioned that the US should prepare a “strategy of graceful decline” by forging ties with and handing leadership over to India. My opinion is based on my theoretical foundation of Long Cycle Theory. I believe that we are nearing the end of the current cycle and that there will be some sort of “macro decision” (which meant world war in previous cycles) in the next 25 to 30 years. That competition probably will mainly be between the US and China (and various allies on either side). At the end of previous cycles, the new emergent hegemon has always been a relatively open society, committed to commerce and a relatively free market, and a maritime power. I believe that, at some point, India will meet those requirements.
However, returning to the British analogy, we must note that the British earned not one, but two terms as world leader. And, although I think India has leadership in its future, I do not necessarily think that it will be the next leader. Of all the contenders, the United States still best suits the role, and could very easily earn its own “second term.” That would give India the rest of the century to develop its economy, build and strengthen its civil institutions , and put its fleets to sea.
copyright EnerGeoPolitics, 2010
In summary, I don’t think it is absolutely necessary for the US to “manage” it’s decline – that is too precipitous a step. Rather, policy makers must recognize our relative decline and strategize accordingly. I do believe that means forging a strong relationship with India (and all the other maritime states of the Outer Crescent – as well as those on the fringe of the Inner Crescent), and I do believe that means preparing for a time when US hegemony may be relinquished, but I also believe that there is a good chance that changing of the guard will not come until late in this – or even into the next – century.
Posted in Grand Strategy, Long Cycle Theory | Tagged grand strategy, Long Cycle Theory | Leave a Comment »
October 20, 2011
So reports Damon Evans for Petroleum Economist:
Positive geological and geophysical data; reported oil seeps throughout the nation’s sedimentary basins, as well as recent oil discoveries; and the geologic similarity of Mongolia’s hydrocarbon basins to producing basins in neighbouring China, offer explorers a rare opportunity to find significant reserves. US consultancy Gustavson Associates claims there is a high probability of finding substantial resources. But, for now, the country’s potential remains almost unknown. A lack of exploration data makes it impossible to accurately estimate the recoverable reserves.
Posted in Central Asia, new discovery, oil | Tagged Mongolia, oil | Leave a Comment »
October 19, 2011
Last month, the Global Times – an official organ of the Chinese Communist Party – published on the same day two opposing opinion pieces on the South China Sea. Each was written pseudonymously (a common practice for that paper); the first was a belligerent take that warned Vietnam and the Philippines about possible severe military action that China was willing to take; the other was a more conciliatory take offering the possibility of collaboration. Seemingly, a classic good cop/bad cop issue. Or maybe not.
Today, R. S. Kahla writing for India’s Institute for Defense Studies & Analysis, dissects the two pieces. Kahla does not see this as a good cop/bad cop scenario. Rather, he sees it as indicative of a split within the Chinese leadership over the best direction to take toward SCS issues. He concludes:
The dilemma for the Chinese leadership . . . remains acute. Any further bluster or threats will only further solidify the anti-Chinese stance that seems to be developing in Southeast Asia, backed from the outside by the US and Japan. The issuing of threats would leave them with few friends in Asia, with the notable exception of North Korea and Pakistan. On the other hand, vacillation or adoption of a softer approach might result in Chinese claims going up in smoke as Southeast Asian countries, with the active support of the US and Japan, seek to carve out their respective claims or come to an understanding amongst themselves without caring for the Chinese claims. A dreadful thought for an aspiring super power!
Read the whole thing. I would also point out that the US and Japan are not the only outside powers seeking to backstop the small ASEAN nations. India, as evidenced by the IDSA’s own interest in the issue, is also playing a significant role in this game.
*update* Walter Russell Mead today also has a post on this general topic. Mead is optimistic that the continued economic development of the region, plus India and Japan, diminishes the threat of conflict and makes the creation of a stable East Asian order more likely. Possibly. On the other hand, the presence of such a wide variety of often competing and overlapping interests might also make a serious conflict more, rather than less, likely.
Posted in China, East Asia, India, Japan, South China Sea | Tagged China, East Asia, India, Japan, South China Sea | Leave a Comment »
October 19, 2011
At its core, geopolitics is the analysis of spatial competition between nation states. Geoeconomics is a subset of geopolitics or, alternately, a softer version of geopolitics – the same spatial competition stripped of the hard (or, at least, harder) power aspects.
Within both realms, however, are not just competition but cooperation. Paolo Sorbello at e-International Relations provides an account of Russo/Kazakh cooperation on development of the Kurmangazy oil field in the Caspian Sea:
This quick account of Russo-Kazakh relations over the Kurmangazy oilfield is a good case in point in order to understand more complex dynamics that have characterized the relations between Moscow and Astana in the last ten years. Vacillations, misunderstandings, compromises, and accords followed each other during leading governmental meetings. Energy has played a peculiar role as the starter of the diplomatic dialogue and remained a cardinal foundation among the parties and in their relations with the exterior, as well as the other Caspian states, the EU, China, and the USA.
It might turn out that Kurmangazy will not yield as much oil as foreseen. In spite of this scenario, it is very probable that Russia and Kazakhstan will remain close, will continue to talk on energy matters, and will collaborate on current and new exploration projects. Thus, soft power aspect of the energy becomes highly relevant in both countries’ foreign policy decision-making. Thinking traditionally, in such countries, the hegemony of the executive on the other powers would lead one to predict the opposite. Therefore, it becomes necessary to start including the energy variable in geopolitical analyses in a more systematic and consistent way.
Posted in Caspian Basin, energy geopolitics, geoeconomics, geopolitics, Kazakhstan, new discovery, Russia | Tagged Caspian, geoeconomics, geopolitics, Kazakhstan, russia | Leave a Comment »
October 19, 2011
Yesterday, I posted a link to David Graeber’s book Direct Action, noting that anyone who truly wanted to understand (not necessarily join or agree, but understand) #OWS should read it.
Today, Graeber himself has put up a long post at Naked Capitalism that will serve as a much shorter introduction, for those interested.
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »
