Archive for August, 2011
August 31, 2011
The centerpiece to Huntsman’s policy proposal is his massive overhaul of the tax system, eliminating most tax breaks (including some extremely popular ones) in exchange for drastically lower rates of 8%, 14% and 23% (plus a drop of the corporate rate to 25% and a scheme to repatriate foreign earnings). As James Pethokoukis notes, this plan “looks like perhaps the most pro-growth, pro-market (and anti-crony capitalist) tax plan put forward by a major U.S. president candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1980.”
Although tax policy is the aspect that will garner the most attention, Huntsman also focuses on liberating America’s vast untapped energy sources, including shale oil (and, as former governor of Utah, he probably has more detailed knowledge about the pros, cons and roadblocks of that potential resource than anyone in the field).
Personally, I think you have to pass a carbon tax to go along with this in order to narrow the significant political opposition it will face. A carbon tax that includes tradeable tax credits for various activities that reduce CO2 would be both a political and financial boon for fossil energy advocates, IMO.
Disclosure: I have contributed financially to Huntsman’s campaign and he is my first choice for the GOP nomination, even though I am not a registered member of the party. Yes, I am the guy who gets him to 1% in the polls. (FWIW, my second choice, is Gary Johnson, showing you just how far out of the Republican mainstream I reside)
Posted in 2012 election, carbon credits, shale oil | Tagged energy policy, jobs, Jon Huntsman, tax | Leave a Comment »
August 31, 2011
Yoshihiko Noda was elected president of Japan’s ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), thus becoming the third DPJ leader to become Japan’s Prime Minister since taking power in 2009. While the DPJ came to power questioning the long time alliance with the United States and seeking to warm relations with China, both of those positions have subsequently softened and both previous DPJ PMs moved closer to the US. Read this excellent summary of recent Japanese politics and foreign policies from this month’s Foreign Affairs for background.
Noda seems to be the most pro-American of the three DPJ leaders. Although reconstruction from the Great Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami, as well as dealing with the crippled Fukushima reactors, will dominated Noda’s agenda, he will not be able to long escape attending to Japan’s role in the growing competition between China and Japan for Asia/Pacific hegemony. China is already beginning to apply pressure. As Elizabeth Economy at the Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia Unbound blog writes:
While Premier Wen Jiabao and the Chinese Foreign Ministry have offered up short congratulatory statements to the new prime minister, most Chinese commentary has ranged from bleak to belligerent. Chinese analysts point out that the prime minister has not renounced his comments to the effect that Class-A Japanese wartime leaders should no longer be considered criminals nor has he committed not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine. He also has made reference to China’s rising nationalism and naval activities as posing a risk to regional stability. To top it all off, the new prime minister has been a strong supporter of the U.S.-Japan defense alliance.
Economy also notes several “suggestions” that the Chinese have for Prime Minister Noda that read like a list of demands from a master to a vassal. Japan is an indispensible linchpin of the US alliance system. EGP hopes that the US offers Noda a genuine attitude of partnership to counterpoint China’s immediate attitude of high handedness.
Posted in China, Coalitioning, geopolitics, Japan | Tagged China, coalitioning, geopolitics, Japan | Leave a Comment »
August 31, 2011
Another must-read from West at Foreign Affairs:
Regardless of how the war turns out, the military lessons learned will be negative; the conflict has dragged on far too long to be considered a strategic success. Unlike in the years after World War II, the generals of this day will not gain in historical stature. The popularity of the idea of counterinsurgency as nation building reached its zenith when Iraq was stabilized in 2008. At the time, the U.S. military’s counterinsurgency warriorintellectuals were in vogue. As happened to their predecessors after the Vietnam War, however, their concepts of war fighting will come to be rejected by the younger generation of company-grade officers who had to execute a flawed doctrine. No matter their skills and good intentions, foreign troops cannot persuade the people of another nation to reject insurgents in their midst. The people must convince themselves — and be willing to sacrifice for that conviction.
As always, read the whole thing.
Posted in Afghanistan | Tagged Afghanistan | Leave a Comment »
August 31, 2011
Peugeot’sHX1 diesel-hybrid crossover concept car will be unveiled at the Frankfurt Auto Show.
Via Gas2.0:
The HX1 delivers an estimated 73.5 mpg (U.S.) while offering seating for six adults. It’s plug-in hybrid drivetrain is mated to a 204 horsepower turbo-diesel engine to power the front wheels, while two electric motors drive the rear wheels. Aside from the fancy hybrid tech, a low drag coefficient of just 0.28 also contributes to the slippery look and feel of the HX1.
Posted in alternative vehicles | Leave a Comment »
August 31, 2011
Walter Russell Mead tells us that this nascent reformulation of the core of the former Soviet Union is not a matter for undue concern, but we disagree. There is reason for cautious alarm. First of all, this is another indication that the coalitioning period of the current Long Cycle phase is apace (with the consequent macrodecision looming), and such indications always have to be noted with concern. Also, Putin is (arguably) influenced by Eurasianist theorists whose goal is a unified continental system on a Berlin/Moscow/Beijing axis. Russian Eurasianists, of course, see this system naturally dominated by Russia, but certainly the Germans and Chinese would have other ideas. That the system might be unwieldy and ultimately collapse does not change the fact that a Heartland unification is the Mackinderian fear that has obsessed Anglo-American geopolitical theorists for over a century. Eurasianism is a direct challenge to the Atlanticism that has defined the contours of the World System for half a millenium. While some would argue that the last 500 years have been an aberration and a shift to a Eurasia-centric system is a return to normalcy, the parochial interests of the West in general and of the United States in particular demand that we seek to extend that aberrational period as long as possible.
Posted in Atlanticism, Eurasianism, geopolitics, Long Cycle Theory, Russia, World System | Tagged Atlanticism, Eurasianism, russia, World System | 1 Comment »
August 31, 2011
The Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization held an informal summit earlier this month, in which the heads of the various states agreed to create a “rapid reaction” military force that could intervene in member nations should the need arise. This probably signals Moscow’s intentions to prop up member governments and to ensure that no unfriendly regime takes root in the former Soviet Space.
Posted in Coalitioning, CSTO | Tagged coalitioning, CSTO | 1 Comment »
August 30, 2011
Valerie Wood at Seeking Alpha explains why drillers keep seeking natural gas despite the price collapse below $4 per MMBtu. The answer is that fracking produces not just natural gas, but natural gas liquids (NGLs):
As crude oil prices have risen, the value of NGLs in the natural gas production process has increased accordingly. As a result, producers are not responding to falling prices by curtailing production the way they have historically. Instead, producers are idling rigs in gas basins with lower NGLs and focusing primarily on shale plays that are liquid-rich, i.e.those that contain a higher percentage of NGLs. Many of these liquid-rich shale plays still contain a substantial amount of natural gas.
Hat tip to Harry Slack (@naturalgaswv), whose tweet tipped me to this article.
Posted in fracking, natural gas | Tagged fracking, natural gas | Leave a Comment »
August 30, 2011
From AutoblogGreen:
Beijing appears to be rethinking its singular focus on electric vehicles as a way to reduce fuel consumption and seems ready to revise its alternative-energy vehicle estimates as it becomes increasingly evident that the city’s electric vehicle targets were completely unrealistic.
Beijing – and in some ways, the whole of China – had set out to leapfrog conventional engine technology by developing and manufacturing huge amounts of electric vehicles. In particular, the city had hoped its push to develop plug-ins would give it an advantage over the West in electric vehicle technology. But hopes and dreams don’t always jive with reality.
Plug-in vehicle sales in China have been poor and, even though no formal decision has been taken to abandon the nation’s grand electric vehicle scheme, some higher-ups in Beijing are reportedly rethinking the policy
The limiting factor for EVs and PHEVs will always be the electricity grid. China is facing severe electricity shortages, making electric vehicles a particularly poor choice. Electricity does not yet – and IMO never will – match liquid fuel for flexibility.
Posted in China, electric vehicles | Tagged China, electric vehicles | Leave a Comment »
August 29, 2011
is laid out succinctly by Robert Samuelson. His conclusion:
The United States and Canada are each other’s largest trading partners and closest allies. Oil markets are subtly changing, as more countries — led by China — seek preferential access to scarce global supplies. In the future, security of supply may matter as much as price. The more we can reduce oil demand and increase supply stability, the better off we’ll be. On oil sands, we should just say “yes.”
hat tip to Instapundit for the original link.
Posted in oil sands | Tagged oil sands | Leave a Comment »
August 29, 2011
Oilweek: The Innovation Explosion
Long Cycle phases have always been organized around unanticipated or revolutionary developments, and that is likely hold for the next phase as well. I believe that development will be in the energy field, and I think that unlocking and maximizing existing carbon fuel sources is a much more likely candidate than exotic technologies or even more well known energy sources such as hydrogen, wind or solar.
Posted in innovation, Long Cycle Theory | Tagged innovation, Long Cycle Theory | Leave a Comment »
August 25, 2011
Thanks to a generous link from Instapundit, this site is experiencing a rush of new readers. I have received a couple of emails asking me just what the theme of this site is, and I do admit that, up until now, there has been no defining statement. I am a research analyst and geographer with a primary interest in classical and neo-classical geopolitics. In particular, I believe that energy will be the most important geopolitical driver for at least the first third of this century. I also subscribe to George Modelski‘s formulation of the Long Cycle Theory of hegemonic change, and from that I believe that we are nearing the end of the current US-dominated period and entering the final phase of coalitioning in advance of some type of macro-decision between the reigning hegemon (the US) and the challenger (China), which, in periods past, has meant global war (but which could involve conflict other than full scale war this time around). I blog about various aspects of energy and geopolitics that I believe fit into that ongoing story.
I am currently at work on a long monograph on energy geopolitics and long cycle theory. For those who may be interested, an introduction to that paper can be found here.
Posted in energy geopolitics | Tagged energy geopolitics | 1 Comment »
August 25, 2011
At the end of yesterday’s post about critiques of the Administration’s shale policy by Colorado Congressmen Lamborn and Tipton, I suggested that Congress should form a Shale Caucus made up of members from states with interests in both shale oil and shale gas (there is already a nascent Marcellus shale caucus, but that is limited both to nat gas and to a specific region). A Shale Caucus would be bipartisan, as there are members of both parties that are interested in safely, soundly and effectively bringing these vast resources to market. An organized Shale Caucus would be better able to challenge the Administration and to shape sensible national policies. It would be at the forefront of economic recovery in the near term and ongoing growth in the long term, as a Shale Economy would both create new jobs (directly and indirectly) and generate new government revenues in the form of leases and royalties.
Look at the map below. If you live in a shale state, contact your Senators and Representatives and push the idea of a bipartisan Shale Caucus.
Posted in Shale Age, shale gas, shale oil | Tagged Shale Age, Shale Caucus, shale gas, shale oil | Leave a Comment »
August 25, 2011
from Asia Times:
China’s smaller private companies, starved of loans as the country tightens credit to fight inflation, are driving an underground banking boom by turning to unofficial sources for funds to stay in business. Some are even becoming lenders, given the prize of high returns.
About 3 trillion yuan (US$470 billion) of bank loans have been channeled into underground lending in the eastern coastal provinces, China Banking Regulatory Commission chairman Liu Mingkang told a recent closed-door conference with lenders.
Large, usually state-owned enterprises, can get bank loans at a 7.2% interest rate, compared with the one-year benchmark interest rate of 6.56%. Through third-party companies such as
financing firms, they can then lend the money on at higher rates to small and medium-sized companies, Liu said, according to a copy of his speech obtained by Securities Times last week.
The funds are then lent to small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) at annualized interest rates of between 36% and 60%, the paper said.
Beijing tightened monetary policies this year to combat inflation that has risen after 4 trillion yuan was pumped into the economy following the global financial crisis near the end of 2008.
Maybe we should let Bernanke go ahead with QE3, but instead of seeing all that newly printed money horded in US banks, we should lend it out to Chinese businesses at usurious rates.
Posted in China, financial crisis | Tagged China, finance | Leave a Comment »
August 24, 2011
I really enjoy Peter Kirsanow’s daily series of Questions for the President at National Review. Look for them daily at The Corner. I will highlight his energy and geopolitics related questions from time to time. From Today’s Questions:
The EPA is in the process of issuing new emissions rules affecting coal-fired power plants, which rules will cause one-fifth of such plants to shut down.
The U.S. imports nearly 65 percent of its oil — more than 4 billion barrels a year at a cost of approximately $440 billion. Imported oil accounts for 62 percent of the U.S. trade deficit. In recognition of those facts, you gave a speech a few months ago about moving the nation toward energy independence. You set a goal of reducing oil imports by one-third over the next decade by “finding and producing more oil at home, and reducing dependence on oil with cleaner alternate fuels and greater efficiency.” Among the alternate fuels you cited was natural gas.
Yet, despite your speech:
- You continue to oppose drilling in several regions in Alaska, including ANWR — estimated to hold 10.4 billion barrels of oil.
- As reported by Robert Bluey, deepwater oil drilling permits are down 71 percent from their historical average.
- Your administration has canceled or stalled the development of oil shale leases in the mountain west.
- Shell Oil canceled plans to drill for an estimated 27 billion barrels of oil off the Alaskan coast after the EPA denied a permit.
- No new construction of nuclear power plants has begun in 30 years.
- As reported by Kevin Mooney, ten oil rigs have left the Gulf of Mexico since you imposed the deepwater drilling moratorium and 8 other planned rigs were moved elsewhere (i.e., the coasts of Africa, South America).
- The shut down of coal-fired plants noted above will add tens of billions to energy costs and the Commerce Department estimates tens of thousands of jobs will be lost.
Follow the link to read the questions that follow from this set up.
Posted in energy policy, Obama | Tagged energy policy, obama | Leave a Comment »
August 24, 2011
via Platts:
US oil shale development has been needlessly stalled by the Obama administration’s reexamination of a Bush-era policy that opened 2 million federal acres to possible commercial-scale production, Republicans on a House of Representatives energy panel said Wednesday.
Representatives Doug Lamborn and Scott Tipton, both Colorado Republicans, criticized the Department of Interior’s February decision to take a new look at a November 2008 federal rule for commercial development of oil shale.
At a field hearing of the House Energy and Minerals Resources Subcommittee in Grand Junction, Colorado, the pair couched the oil shale policy in the same terms House Republicans have approached other energy issues this session, saying federal regulations should not stand in the way of industry creating jobs, reducing oil imports and increasing national security.
“The road to viability for the oil shale industry is reliant on a predictable regulatory structure and an environment in which companies can invest in research and development and create jobs,” Tipton said. “The proper implementation of our environmental and safety regulations already on the books is a far better strategy than adding additional layers of bureaucracy to the process.”
Representatives from shale oil states should form an alliance with those from shale gas states and form a Shale Caucus to push shale energy issues in the Congress. Such a caucus would be bipartisan, as there are regional supporters of shale development on both sides of the aisle. You can send support to Representative Lanborn here and to Representative Tipton here. Congresspersons only accept email originating from zip codes within their districts, but you can use the contact information to write, call or fax if you are outside their districts and still want to voice support.
hey
Posted in natural gas, oil, politics, Shale Age, shale oil | Tagged politics, shale gas, shale oil | Leave a Comment »
