As I have written numerous times in the past (here, here and here for example), the axis of Central Asia – from the Persian Gulf, north through the Caspian Sea, and beyond into the northern regions of Central Russia – is the single most energy rich region of the planet.  Dubbed the Strategic Energy Ellipse, this region contains approximately 70% of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40% of the natural gas reserves (not counting the still-to-be-tallied totals of shale gas).  In a global industrial world that requires vast amounts of energy, it is the ultimate geopolitical object in an era of growing demand and (apparently) shrinking supply.  The map below is a terrific representation of the SEE and its relationship to the major energy consuming regions of the world

The great powers all have vital interests in this region, and there are multiple competing alliance structures in place to support those interests.  The European Union and the United States sponsor multiple NATO partnerships with nations either within the ellipse or along transit routes from the region.  Apart from this, the United States has tried to form a smaller group called the Caspian Guard.  Russia sponsors the Collective Security Treaty Organization, while also partnering with China in a fourth grouping called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.    Of these various groups, I believe that the SCO is the greatest threat to US interests in the region.  All of the groupings are summarized in the table below.

Competing Alliance Structures Within and Around the Strategic Energy Ellipse

Turkey has been a long time ally of the United States and an important member of NATO almost from the beginning (NATO was founded in 1949 and Turkey joined in 1952 – three years before core member Germany).  For over half a century, Turkey represented the most powerful presence of the West in general and the United States in particular in the Middle East and Southwest Asia.

Over the last decade, however, Turkey has been turning away and looking eastward (Stratfor has an excellent rundown of the deterioration of Turkeys relations with the West here).

Now, China is actively courting a deeper relationship with Turkey, including the possibility of a partial membership in the SCO.  Turkey in the SCO might not by itself present a serious strategic problem  for the United States, but the trajectory of Turkey’s strategic migration is a troubling complication.  If Turkey moves away from the West and develops deeper ties with the Asian powers, a lynchpin of US strategic reach would disappear.

I am not sure what can be done to steer or diminish Turkey’s apparent movement away from the West.  The accommodation counseled by Stratfor is, of course, a wise approach, but it may not be enough.  As an important ally with a strong, diversified (i.e., not petro-based) economy and the most powerful military in the region, the Turks are in position to make demands commensurate with their status.
The AKP looks like it will remain in power for the foreseeable future, and the longer it remains, the deeper the inroads that Islamism will make into the former secular state.  Now, Islamism is not necessarily incompatible with Western political values, but as presently practiced, it is incompatible with the presence of an Israeli state.  As the Turks play the US, China and Russia off of one another, might Israel not become a determining factor?   I believe that the US commitment to Israel is inviolable (I think that is true for the West in general, but I have little faith in the European nations honoring that commitment in the long run), but Russia and China have no such responsibility and will be free to appease any Turkish demands that might arise.

The steady movement of Turkey away from the West will represent the second most important geo-strategic change since the end of the Cold War – the rise of China being the other – and neither one of them works to the benefit of the United States.